Nabble - AllStat

Re: confuse exercise-small clarification

2009-12-08T15:58:44Z

Dear Maja. Your answer was really clarifying. Now I understand the
logic. What the exercise asks is to find the probability of getting a
rough in the 2nd extraction considering that you may possibly extracted
a smooth or a rough in the previous one. The thing is the sample space
in 2nd extraction is modified consequently. Now my answer is:

Smooth in 1: 1/3*6/10+1/3*5/7+1/3*4/11=0.56
Smooth brokes, then rough in 2nd: 1/3*5/9+1/3*5/7+1/3*4/11= 0.55

Both events: 0.56*0.55=0.308

Rough in 1st: 0.44 (1-0.56)
Rough brokes, then rough in 2nd: 1/3*3/9+1/3*2/7+1/3*7/11=0.41

Both events: 0.18

Both possibilities together: 0.308+0.18 = 0.488 (approx 0.49)

Mazel tov!

__________________________________________________________________

*Rodrigo Briceño*
Project Manager
Sanigest Internacional

+506 22-91-12-00 ext. 113 * Oficina* *Costa Rica*
+506 22-32-08-30 *Fax
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maja zaloznik escribió:

> "in the previous extraction" does NOT mean the previous was a smooth
> ball from bag 1.
>
> it means the ball broke and you do not know if it was smooth or rough
> and you don't know from which bag it was.
>
> hope this helps!
>
> 2009/12/8 Rodrigo Briceño <rbriceno@...
> <mailto:rbriceno@...>>
>
> when the exercise says bag 2, the correct numbers are 5 smooth and
> 2 rough, that's why I calculated 5/7 as a probability. Sorry for
> the confusion (extra)
>
> -------- Mensaje original --------
> Asunto: confuse exercise
> Fecha: Tue, 08 Dec 2009 15:09:22 -0600
> De: Rodrigo Briceño <rbriceno@...
> <mailto:rbriceno@...>>
> Responder a: rbriceno@... <mailto:rbriceno@...>
> Organización: Sanigest
> Para: allstat@... <mailto:allstat@...>
>
>
>
> Dear colisters. I took the time to solve an exercise from a
> textbook, but I suddenly lost the perspective of what is really
> asking the third item on it. The exercise reads:
>
> Three identical bags contain crystall balls. The first one has 6
> smooth ones and 4 rough ones; the second has three smooth and 2
> rough and the third has 4 smooth and 7 rough. Determine:
>
> 1. The probability that when extracting randomly one ball this is
> rough.
> Answer:
> P(Smooth)=1/3*6/10 + 1/3*5/7 + 1/3*4/11=0.56
> P(Rough)=0.44
>
> 2. An extraction was made and the ball was smooth. What is the
> probability that the bag 1 had been selected?
>
> This is a bayes one: (1/3*6/10)/0.56 = 0.36
>
> And the confusing (for me) one:
>
> 3. In the previous extraction the ball fall and broke. What are
> the probabilities that a new randomly extraction the ball will be
> rough? The answer of the book says 0.49, but what I did gave me 0.46
>
> My try was: 1/3*5/9+1/3*5/7+1/3*4/11= 0.46, since the only change
> is that the first bag will have only 9 balls (one smooth less).
>
> Anybody has an alternative opinion?
>
> Thanks
> --
>
> __________________________________________________________________
>
> *Rodrigo Briceño*
> Project Manager
> Sanigest Internacional
>
> +506 22-91-12-00 ext. 113 * Oficina* *Costa Rica*
> +506 22-32-08-30 *Fax
> *_rbriceno@... <mailto:mail@...
> <mailto:mail@...>>
> _www.sanigest.com_ <http://www.sanigest.com/>
>
> MSN: _jbric98@... <mailto:jbric98@...
> <mailto:jbric98@...>>
> SKYPE: rbriceno1087
>
> _____________________
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>
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> a esta misma dirección.
>
>
> --
>
> __________________________________________________________________
>
> *Rodrigo Briceño*
> Project Manager
> Sanigest Internacional
>
> +506 22-91-12-00 ext. 113 * Oficina* *Costa Rica*
> +506 22-32-08-30 *Fax
> *_rbriceno@... <mailto:mail@...
> <mailto:mail@...>>
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>
> MSN: _jbric98@... <mailto:jbric98@...
> <mailto:jbric98@...>>
> SKYPE: rbriceno1087
>
> _____________________
>
> This communication contains legal information which is privileged
> and confidential. It is for the exclusive use of the address and
> distribution, dissemination, copying or use by others is strictly
> prohibited. If you have received this communication by error,
> please delete the original message and e-mail us.
>
>
> Esta comunicación contiene información legal privilegiada y
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> es estrictamente prohibida. Si usted ha recibido esta comunicación
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> a esta misma dirección.
>
>

confuse exercise-small clarification

2009-12-08T15:22:11Z

when the exercise says bag 2, the correct numbers are 5 smooth and 2
rough, that's why I calculated 5/7 as a probability. Sorry for the
confusion (extra)

-------- Mensaje original --------
Asunto: confuse exercise
Fecha: Tue, 08 Dec 2009 15:09:22 -0600
De: Rodrigo Briceño <rbriceno@...>
Responder a: rbriceno@...
Organización: Sanigest
Para: allstat@...

Dear colisters. I took the time to solve an exercise from a textbook,
but I suddenly lost the perspective of what is really asking the third
item on it. The exercise reads:

Three identical bags contain crystall balls. The first one has 6 smooth
ones and 4 rough ones; the second has three smooth and 2 rough and the
third has 4 smooth and 7 rough. Determine:

1. The probability that when extracting randomly one ball this is rough.
Answer:
P(Smooth)=1/3*6/10 + 1/3*5/7 + 1/3*4/11=0.56
P(Rough)=0.44

2. An extraction was made and the ball was smooth. What is the
probability that the bag 1 had been selected?

This is a bayes one: (1/3*6/10)/0.56 = 0.36

And the confusing (for me) one:

3. In the previous extraction the ball fall and broke. What are the
probabilities that a new randomly extraction the ball will be rough? The
answer of the book says 0.49, but what I did gave me 0.46

My try was: 1/3*5/9+1/3*5/7+1/3*4/11= 0.46, since the only change is
that the first bag will have only 9 balls (one smooth less).

Anybody has an alternative opinion?

Thanks
--

__________________________________________________________________

*Rodrigo Briceño*
Project Manager
Sanigest Internacional

+506 22-91-12-00 ext. 113 * Oficina* *Costa Rica*
+506 22-32-08-30 *Fax
*_rbriceno@... <mailto:mail@...>
_www.sanigest.com_ <http://www.sanigest.com/>

MSN: _jbric98@... <mailto:jbric98@...>
SKYPE: rbriceno1087

_____________________

This communication contains legal information which is privileged and
confidential. It is for the exclusive use of the address and
distribution, dissemination, copying or use by others is strictly
prohibited. If you have received this communication by error, please
delete the original message and e-mail us.

Esta comunicación contiene información legal privilegiada y confidencial
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copia u otro uso por terceras personas es estrictamente prohibida. Si
usted ha recibido esta comunicación por error, le rogamos borrar el
mensaje original y comunicárnoslo a esta misma dirección.

--

__________________________________________________________________

*Rodrigo Briceño*
Project Manager
Sanigest Internacional

+506 22-91-12-00 ext. 113 * Oficina* *Costa Rica*
+506 22-32-08-30 *Fax
*_rbriceno@... <mailto:mail@...>
_www.sanigest.com_ <http://www.sanigest.com/>

MSN: _jbric98@... <mailto:jbric98@...>
SKYPE: rbriceno1087

_____________________

This communication contains legal information which is privileged and
confidential. It is for the exclusive use of the address and
distribution, dissemination, copying or use by others is strictly
prohibited. If you have received this communication by error, please
delete the original message and e-mail us.

Esta comunicación contiene información legal privilegiada y confidencial
para el uso exclusivo del destinatario. La distribución, diseminación,
copia u otro uso por terceras personas es estrictamente prohibida. Si
usted ha recibido esta comunicación por error, le rogamos borrar el
mensaje original y comunicárnoslo a esta misma dirección.

confuse exercise

2009-12-08T13:09:22Z

Dear colisters. I took the time to solve an exercise from a textbook,
but I suddenly lost the perspective of what is really asking the third
item on it. The exercise reads:

Three identical bags contain crystall balls. The first one has 6 smooth
ones and 4 rough ones; the second has three smooth and 2 rough and the
third has 4 smooth and 7 rough. Determine:

1. The probability that when extracting randomly one ball this is rough.
Answer:
P(Smooth)=1/3*6/10 + 1/3*5/7 + 1/3*4/11=0.56
P(Rough)=0.44

2. An extraction was made and the ball was smooth. What is the
probability that the bag 1 had been selected?

This is a bayes one: (1/3*6/10)/0.56 = 0.36

And the confusing (for me) one:

3. In the previous extraction the ball fall and broke. What are the
probabilities that a new randomly extraction the ball will be rough? The
answer of the book says 0.49, but what I did gave me 0.46

My try was: 1/3*5/9+1/3*5/7+1/3*4/11= 0.46, since the only change is
that the first bag will have only 9 balls (one smooth less).

Anybody has an alternative opinion?

Thanks
--

__________________________________________________________________

*Rodrigo Briceño*
Project Manager
Sanigest Internacional

+506 22-91-12-00 ext. 113 * Oficina* *Costa Rica*
+506 22-32-08-30 *Fax
*_rbriceno@... <mailto:mail@...>
_www.sanigest.com_ <http://www.sanigest.com/>

MSN: _jbric98@... <mailto:jbric98@...>
SKYPE: rbriceno1087

_____________________

This communication contains legal information which is privileged and
confidential. It is for the exclusive use of the address and
distribution, dissemination, copying or use by others is strictly
prohibited. If you have received this communication by error, please
delete the original message and e-mail us.

Esta comunicación contiene información legal privilegiada y confidencial
para el uso exclusivo del destinatario. La distribución, diseminación,
copia u otro uso por terceras personas es estrictamente prohibida. Si
usted ha recibido esta comunicación por error, le rogamos borrar el
mensaje original y comunicárnoslo a esta misma dirección.

masters course: statistical applications in linguistics/philology/literary studies

2009-12-08T10:30:01Z

Dear Allstat,

Does anyone know of a Master's course (or similar) that covers statistical applications in linguistics/historical linguistics/stylometrics/literary studies in reasonable depth (doesn't have to be in the UK)? I've tried the Internet and Internet-based course catalogues at some lenght and without success so far, so may be asking the wrong question (or for something that doesn't exist!)

I'll be very grateful for any information!

Howard

RSS Glasgow Group Talk, Dec. 15th, Stephen Senn: 'control and influence in clinical trials'

2009-12-08T09:20:03Z

NOTE THIS IS AN AFTERNOON MEETING, followed by a christmassy reception at 5.00 pm

;cost of £5 will give wine and nibbles.

Hope to see you there.

*****************************************************************************************************************************

Here are details of the next meeting of the Glasgow Group

of the Royal Statistical Society.

Stephen Senn. Control and inference in clinical trials

The key feature of modern clinical trials is concurrent control.

Various real examples will be examined.

I consider to what extent concurrent control is valuable and under what circumstances one can do better.

Some Bayesian proposals for using historical information will be discussed.

Date: Dec. 15th

Time: 3.30 - 5.00 pm

Venue: Room 203, Mathematics Building, 15 University Gdns.

Glasgow G12 8QW

Please note that this meeting will be followed by a christmassy reception at 5.00 pm in our common room (room 210). Cost of £5 will give wine and nibbles.

COURSE: Computational Molecular Evolution, 3-12 May 2010, Iraklio, Crete

2009-12-08T05:18:56Z

re-posting with corrected Subject field; apologies
--------------------------------------------------------------

Computational Molecular Evolution

3-12 May 2010
Iraklio (Heraklion), Crete
http://cwp.embo.org/pc10-25/

Deadline for applications: 31 January 2010

Course summary
This EMBO Practical Course aims to provide researchers with the
theoretical knowledge and practical skills required to carry out
molecular evolutionary analysis on their own data and on data
drawn from sequence databases. The course will combine basic
assumptions and ideas fundamental to the field with discussion
of cutting-edge methodologies, and is therefore relevant to
researchers with a range of different experience levels.

This course is essentially the same as that which ran successfully
as a Wellcome Trust Advanced Course at the European Bioinformatics
Institute, Hinxton, UK, in Spring 2009.

Programme
* interpretation of molecular phylogenetic trees and sequence alignments
* genomics resources and sequence alignments
* phylogeny reconstruction models
* hypothesis testing in phylogenetics
* coalescent model and inference from population data

Course organisers
* Nick Goldman (European Bioinformatics Institute, Hinxton, UK)
* Ziheng Yang (University College London)
* Aidan Budd (European Molecular Biology Laboratory, Heidelberg)
* Alexandros Stamatakis (Technical University of Munich)
* Giorgos Kotoulas (Institute of Marine Biology and Genetics, Hellenic
Center for Marine Research, Heraklion)

Guest instructors
* Michail Averof (Institute of Molecular Biology and Biotechnology,
Foundation for Research and Technology, Heraklion)
* Martin Embley (University of Newcastle)
* Olivier Gascuel (LIRMM, Montpellier)
* Javier Herrero (European Bioinformatics Institute, Hinxton, UK)
* John Huelsenbeck (University of California, Berkeley)
* Carolin Kosiol (Veterinary Medical University, Vienna)
* Aoife McLysaght (Trinity College Dublin)
* Rasmus Nielsen (University of California, Berkeley)
* Bill Pearson (University of Virginia)
* Antonis Rokas (Vanderbilt University)
* Mikkel Schierup (Aahrus University, Denmark)
* Jeff Thorne (North Carolina State University)
* Ken Wolfe (Trinity College Dublin)

For full details, see http://cwp.embo.org/pc10-25/ or http://tinyurl.com/cme2010

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Nick Goldman tel: +44-(0)1223-492530
EMBL - European Bioinformatics Institute fax: +44-(0)1223-494468
Wellcome Trust Genome Campus, Hinxton, Cambridge CB10 1SD, UK

Re: COURSE: Evidence Synthesis for Decision Modeling, 14-18 April, Boston, MA, US

2009-12-08T05:08:37Z

Sorry, total brain failure and used an old Subject header which is totally
inappropriate. Ignore the Decision Modeling post. My apologies for wasting
time and bandwidth. Nick Goldman

COURSE: Evidence Synthesis for Decision Modeling, 14-18 April, Boston, MA, US

2009-12-08T05:05:48Z

Computational Molecular Evolution

3-12 May 2010
Iraklio (Heraklion), Crete
http://cwp.embo.org/pc10-25/

Deadline for applications: 31 January 2010

Course summary
This EMBO Practical Course aims to provide researchers with the
theoretical knowledge and practical skills required to carry out
molecular evolutionary analysis on their own data and on data
drawn from sequence databases. The course will combine basic
assumptions and ideas fundamental to the field with discussion
of cutting-edge methodologies, and is therefore relevant to
researchers with a range of different experience levels.

This course is essentially the same as that which ran successfully
as a Wellcome Trust Advanced Course at the European Bioinformatics
Institute, Hinxton, UK, in Spring 2009.

Programme
* interpretation of molecular phylogenetic trees and sequence alignments
* genomics resources and sequence alignments
* phylogeny reconstruction models
* hypothesis testing in phylogenetics
* coalescent model and inference from population data

Course organisers
* Nick Goldman (European Bioinformatics Institute, Hinxton, UK)
* Ziheng Yang (University College London)
* Aidan Budd (European Molecular Biology Laboratory, Heidelberg)
* Alexandros Stamatakis (Technical University of Munich)
* Giorgos Kotoulas (Institute of Marine Biology and Genetics, Hellenic
Center for Marine Research, Heraklion)

Guest instructors
* Michail Averof (Institute of Molecular Biology and Biotechnology,
Foundation for Research and Technology, Heraklion)
* Martin Embley (University of Newcastle)
* Olivier Gascuel (LIRMM, Montpellier)
* Javier Herrero (European Bioinformatics Institute, Hinxton, UK)
* John Huelsenbeck (University of California, Berkeley)
* Carolin Kosiol (Veterinary Medical University, Vienna)
* Aoife McLysaght (Trinity College Dublin)
* Rasmus Nielsen (University of California, Berkeley)
* Bill Pearson (University of Virginia)
* Antonis Rokas (Vanderbilt University)
* Mikkel Schierup (Aahrus University, Denmark)
* Jeff Thorne (North Carolina State University)
* Ken Wolfe (Trinity College Dublin)

For full details, see http://cwp.embo.org/pc10-25/ or http://tinyurl.com/cme2010

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Nick Goldman tel: +44-(0)1223-492530
EMBL - European Bioinformatics Institute fax: +44-(0)1223-494468
Wellcome Trust Genome Campus, Hinxton, Cambridge CB10 1SD, UK

Re: Analysis of temperature on Earth

2009-12-08T05:00:12Z

I don't think there is much doubt that there has been a
shift in mean. The question is what has chiefly contributed to it and/or did we
have a similar shift in medieval times where we don't have significant data
accurate to make a proper scientific judgement and comparison. Tree ring data
may provide the answer but this has not yet been made widely available by those
who have it. Clearly, we need to know.

Dr. Ed Goodall,

Centre for Statistics and Operational Research,

Department of Maths and Physics,

The Queen's University of Belfast,

N. Ireland

> Date: Mon, 7 Dec 2009 12:04:59 -0500
> From: dave@...
> Subject: Re: Analysis of temperature on Earth
> To: allstat@...
>
> I am a statistician and have specialized in time series analysis for a
> number of years. I have often been "too busy" to participate in these kind
> of dialogues. Perhaps it is time that I got "unbusy" and deliver some time
> series expertise to the subject at hand. Let me state up front that I am
> totally untrained with respect to the relevant underlying meteorological
> "causes" for this data and simply stated "I walk (talk) where angels fear to
> tread".
>
> I thank others for pointing me to the raw data, 372 months (starting
> 1978/12) of 25 measurements of warming phenomena.
>
> Using 372 monthly values of a single time series to draw inference can be
> flawed for a number of reasons:
>
> 1. The time span is too short to capture longer cycles which might
> explain some of the level shifts that are discussed below.
>
> 2. Using a single series to analyze/predict the future is analogous to
> a car driver using the rear window to forecast future road conditions.
> Tricky business indeed. Single series analysis(ARIMA) suggests somewhat
> naively that the past causes the future while causal models (Transfer
> Functions) embody the impact of user-suggested supporting variables. I did
> not have access to possible causal series data and if any reader can help in
> this regard, I would be willing to incorporate them and report back to the
> list.
>
> 3. Analysts and most software packages often confuse trend with level
> shifts. Level shifts and trends are both intercept changes but reflect
> totally different impacts. It is necessary to clearly make this distinction.
>
> Commentary like " This is not my area of expertise, but if you look at
> the very informative graphs provided, there does seem to be a trend -
> specifically - before 1995 the global temperatures are lower, and after 1995
> they seem to be higher." Are descriptive in nature and often lead to
> spurious conclusions as a before and after analysis/conclusion is not proof
> of a trend but rather a statement of "mean shift".
>
> I have analyzed the data and placed the results/graphs/reports on our web
> site at http://www.autobox.com/warm.zip . The graphs and analyses clearly
> suggest strong seasonal structure. The conclusions are (among others) that
> approximately half the measures suggest a statistical level shift at or
> about the beginning of 1998. These are Level or Step shifts not trends. The
> csv files in the referenced URL support this conclusion.
>
> I hope this helps our greater understanding of this data and I look forward
> to comments on this work.
>
> Dave Reilly
> Automatic Forecasting Systems
> http://www.autobox.com
>
> Dave Reilly
> Senior Vice President
> Automatic Forecasting Systems
> www.autobox.com
> 215-675-0652 (office)
> 215-353-7087 (cell)
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: A UK-based worldwide e-mail broadcast system mailing list
> [mailto:allstat@...] On Behalf Of John McKellar
> Sent: Monday, December 07, 2009 7:18 AM
> To: allstat@...
> Subject: Re: Analysis of temperature on Earth
>
> Dear AllStat,
>
> Professor Zhigljavsky raises some valid concerns - though I suspect he's
> fallen into the same error as everyone else of analysing inferior data.
> The problem is inferior to what and how do we access sufficient data? Are
> the ice cores from the arctic or Antarctic not pretty definitive?
>
> Then, in such a complex model; there are bound to be many ways to analyse it
> (under different assumptions); we need the results to be consistent to build
> confidence.
>
> Is there anyone on the list who feels able to comment on the statistical
> analyses used in the climate debate?
>
> As for the East Anglia debacle, where (depending on how you discuss it)
> scientists hid data, changed data or questioned its usefulness. I'll never
> describe transforming my data as "a trick" again!
>
> Regards
>
> John
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: A UK-based worldwide e-mail broadcast system mailing list
> [mailto:allstat@...] On Behalf Of Kwaku Damoah
> Sent: Monday, December 07, 2009 10:52 AM
> To: allstat@...
> Subject: Re: Analysis of temperature on Earth
>
> Dear Allstat,
> Global warming is a phenomenon which is forecast over a long period of time
> and as such more data is needed to be able to justify this conclusion, I
> guess data over different sub-regions/continents for a period spanning not
> less than 100 years is needed.
> Kwaku Damoah
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: A UK-based worldwide e-mail broadcast system mailing list
> [mailto:allstat@...] On Behalf Of Anatoly Zhigljavsky
> Sent: 07 December 2009 09:45
> To: allstat@...
> Subject: Analysis of temperature on Earth
>
> Dear allstat fellows,
>
> I though some of you might be interested in what I have done after I got
> tired of listening about Global Warming and ClimatGate.
>
> I decided to check the data myself. The result is the following website:
>
> http://www.cf.ac.uk/maths/subsites/zhigljavskyaa/climatechange/
>
>
> I did not find any signs of the Global Warming!
>
> Sorry, the statistical part in my short report is poor (this report is not
> for professional statisticians!)
>
> Any comments?
>
> Anatoly Zhigljavsky, Professor
> Chair in Statistics
> School of Mathematics
> Cardiff University
> CF24 4AG
> Cardiff, UK
>
> Tel. +44(0)2029875076
> No virus found in this incoming message.
> Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
> Version: 8.5.426 / Virus Database: 270.14.95/2547 - Release Date: 12/06/09
> 19:37:00

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CURRENTLY AVAILABLE JOB LIST

2009-12-08T04:15:16Z

Dear Allstat

Key People currently have the following vacancies, which may be of interest to you:

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Justin Gimblett
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Key People Ltd.
Catherine House / Adelaide Street / St. Albans / Herts. / AL3 5BA

Direct Tel: +44 (0)1727 817 617 (ddi) / Switchboard Tel: +44 (0)1727 811 634 / Fax: +44(0)1727 844 838
Email: jgimblett@...
LinkedIn Profile: www.linkedin.com/in/justingimblett

Refer a friend and get paid

At Key People as many as 50% of the people we place have been referred to us by their friends and colleagues. If you refer someone to our division and we are able to help them secure employment, then after successful completion of the probation period, we will reward your efforts with a 'thank you' for £250 (or currency equivalent).

Allstat Guidelines

2009-12-08T02:50:34Z

Dear Allstat members,

Just a quick reminder that allstat is a mailing list rather than a discussion
forum so can people please reply to the poster rather than the whole list.
There are other places where discussion is welcome and many of the list members
don't wish to receive lots of posts, only vacancies and announcements.

Many thanks.

-----
The University of Glasgow, charity number SC004401

CONFERENCE: Radical Statistics Conference 2010

2009-12-08T02:46:53Z

with apologies for cross-posting.

Radica

with apologies for cross-posting.

Radical Statistics is pleased to
announce its 2010 Conference:

27th February, 2010 at the Friends
Meeting House, Euston, London.

Speakers and topics including
David Miller on Spinwatch, Eileen Magnello on Florence Nightingale, Paul
Marchant on street lighting, Heather Brooke on Right to Know, Harvey Goldstein
on Statistical ethics, and Danny Dorling on Statistics of injustice, as well as
activity workshops and social activities before and after.

Full programme and booking form
at:

http://www.radstats.org.uk/conf2010/index.htm

Registration fee is £35 with
reductions available for members, students and low-waged. Booking is now open.

Please feel free to circulate and
promote this to colleagues, friends, activists and students

Please post this flyer at your
workplace or on bulletin boards:

http://www.radstats.org.uk/conf2010/radstatsconf2010programme.pdf

CARLO GIANNINI RESEARCH FELLOWSHIP IN ECONOMETRICS

2009-12-08T02:40:07Z

CARLO GIANNINI RESEARCH FELLOWSHIP IN ECONOMETRICS
II Edition - 2009

1 – General

The Centro Interuniversitario di Econometria (CIdE) and the
Associazione Carlo Giannini (which
acknowledge financial support from the Bank of Italy) award a Research
Fellowship in Econometrics in
memory of Carlo Giannini. It is aimed to young researchers of all
nationalities who wish to undertake
advanced research in econometrics in an Italian university. The
competition is based on candidates’
curriculum, research papers and publications, and a research project.
Terms and Conditions: (i) The fellowship is incompatible with any
other income. (ii) Applicants must
have achieved their Ph.D. after 30/9/2006 or about to complete their
Ph.D. by the beginning of the
fellowship. The winner must provide evidence of his Ph.D. certificate
or of an equivalent doctoral
degree. (iii) The research project can not be undertaken in the same
university where the candidate
achieved or is about to achieve his/her Ph.D. (iv) The Research
Fellowship is incompatible with
undergraduate teaching. However, the fellow may deliver a limited
amount of graduate teaching, to be
approved by the award committee. (v) The fellow must actively
contribute to the research of the
hosting Department/University, where (s)he is expected to spend most
her/his time.

2 – Application procedure

The application and supporting documents must be sent to the address
below by January 15, 2010
Late submissions will not be considered. Applications – with
candidate’s original signature – must be
accompanied by the following documents:
1. curriculum vitae;
2. two photocopies of a valid identity document;
3. description of the candidate’s research project (2/3 A4 pages);
4. al least two reference letters of academics who are well
acquainted with the candidate’s
research;
5. documents showing past educational attainments (e.g., copies
of Ph.D. certificate or, if the
candidate has not yet obtained a Ph.D., documents reporting
the grades achieved in the Ph.D.
program exams);
6. at most three working papers/publications;
7. indication of the Italian university/department where the
candidate wishes to spend the
Fellowship;
8. a letter of the Director of the chosen department confirming
to host the fellow indicating also
the designed advisor, expert in the field.
9. the consent to the use of personal data for the purposes of
this competition, along with the
privacy protection provisions contained in the Italian
legislative decree No.196 of 2003.

3 - Award committee

The award committee is composed of academics expert in econometrics.
The CIdE designates 3
members; the Associazione Carlo Giannini designates 2 members. No
appeal against the committee’s
decisions is allowed. The committee may invite candidates for an
interview or a seminar. The
fellowship will be awarded by March 15, 2010.

4. Amount and tenure period

The Fellowship starts on October 1, 2010 and entitles the winner to
the payment of a yearly sum of
Euro 50,000, gross of all taxes and social security contributions, The
duration of the Fellowship is two
years. Throughout the period of the fellowship, the Associazione Carlo
Giannini may invite the fellow
to illustrate the state of her/his research in seminars/workshops. It
is also strongly advised to submit
papers for possible presentation in internationally recognised
conferences in the field.
By the 15th of September of first year, the winner must produce an
annual report on the advances of
her/his research, including the scientific evaluation by her/his local
advisor (see Section 2.8). At the
end of the first year, the Award Committee decides whether to renew
the fellowship for a second year.
At the end of the Fellowship’s tenure, the winner must produce a final report.
The fellow is expected to acknowledge receipt of this funding in all
papers prepared in connection with
this research effort.
October 30, 2009
For any information please contact:
Associazione Carlo Giannini
c/o Rocco Mosconi
Dipartimento di Ingegneria Gestionale
Politecnico di Milano
Piazza L. da Vinci 32 – 20133 Milano
Ph. + 39 02 23992747
Fax + 39 02 700423151
e-mail: rocco.mosconi@...

--
Fabrizio Leisen
Assistant Professor of Probability and Mathematical Statistics
Universidad de Navarra
Pamplona, Spain
http://sites.google.com/site/fabrizioleisen/

JOB: Sports Modelling Vacancies

2009-12-07T18:00:22Z

########################################################################
#
########################################################################
#
####
####
#### SPORTS MODELLING VACANCIES
####
####
####
#### DEADLINE DECEMBER 14th
####
####
####
#### ATASS SPORTS
####
####
####
########################################################################
#
########################################################################
#

ATASS Sports is a leading statistical research consultancy business
delivering high-quality sports models and output to the betting
industry.

We are currently looking to fill a range of full-time positions to work
as part of our existing and newly planned research teams. We have
positions
available at all levels for applied statisticians, mathematical
modellers,
database managers and IT support staff. Generous salary and benefits
packages are the norm and depend upon position, qualifications and
experience.
All posts will be based at our newly developed office complex on the
Exeter
business park. Start dates are flexible.

The ideal applicants will combine a passion for sports with a passion
for
innovative analysis and research. Our new recruits will work within
close-knit
multi-skilled teams to model a variety of sports markets, obtaining and
incorporating real-time information, and developing and applying novel
statistical and mathematical modeling techniques.

The closing date for this round of appointments is Monday December 14th
2009.
Applications or requests for further information should be addressed to
Steve Brooks via jobs@.... Additional information can also be
found
on our web site - http:/www.atassltd.co.uk

ATASS values a diverse workforce and welcomes applications from all
suitably
qualified individuals.

CONFERENCE: ABC methods for Stochastic Epidemic Models -- Second Announcement

2009-12-07T15:47:02Z

{Apologies for cross-posting}

--------------------------------------------------------------------
"Mini Workshop on ABC methods for Stochastic Epidemic Models"
Wednesday December 9, 2009 @ University of Nottingham

http://www.maths.nottingham.ac.uk/~tk/epiABC.html
--------------------------------------------------------------------

There will be a half-day workshop on Approximate Bayesian Computation
(ABC) methodology with application to Stochastic Epidemic Models
organized by the Epidemics group in the Division of Statistics, School
of Mathematical Sciences, University of Nottingham.

There has been an increasing interest in ABC methods over the last few
years. The purpose of this meeting is to bring together researchers who
have applied (or intend to apply) such methods in epidemic modelling
and also identify any further research directions in this area.

There will be three talks (see program below). The meeting is
free and open to everyone but it would helpful if those interested in
attending could email Theo Kypraios (theodore.kypraios@...)
in advance.

The meeting will take place in room C18 of the Pope Building,
University Park Campus, University of Nottingham. Maps and directions
are available at

http://www.nottingham.ac.uk/about/visitorinformation/mapsanddirections/mapsanddirections.aspx
http://www.nottingham.ac.uk/about/documents/universityparkcampusmap.pdf

best wishes,
Theo.

Program
-------------

14:00 -- 15:00: Dennis Prangle (Lancaster): Choice of Summary Statistics
for Approximate Bayesian Computation.

15:00 -- 16:00: TJ McKinley (Cambridge): ABC for temporal epidemic models

16:00 -- 16:30: Break

16:30 -- 17:30: Marc Baguelin (Health Protection Agency): ABC for
epidemics with final outcome data.

17:30 -- 18:00 Discussion

See abstracts in http://www.maths.nottingham.ac.uk/~tk/epiABC.html

--
Dr Theodore Kypraios
Lecturer in Statistics @ University of Nottingham
http://www.maths.nott.ac.uk/~tk

No virus found in this outgoing message.
Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
Version: 8.5.426 / Virus Database: 270.14.96/2548 - Release Date: 12/06/09 07:30:00

Reminder: ASA Stat Comp/Graph Student Paper Competition Deadline 12/14

2009-12-07T12:42:42Z

Just a gentle reminder that the deadline for submission to the Student Paper Competition is fast approaching. All application materials must be received by 5:00 PM EST, Monday,
December 14, 2009.

For submission guidelines, please visit
http://stat-computing.org/awards/student/announcement.html

_________________________________________________________________
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Re: Climate change Threads - complaint for teh moderator.

2009-12-07T11:56:13Z

FYI
This is not an appropriate message from Leigh Herdman. I find it quite offensive.
Regards,
Martin Gibson
----- Original Message -----
From: leigh herdman
To: allstat@...
Sent: Monday, December 07, 2009 7:35 PM
Subject: Climate change Threads

Is this really the place for the tin foil hatters to congregate ?

> Date: Mon, 7 Dec 2009 14:50:23 +0000
> From: m861holt@...
> Subject: Climate change is not related to CO2
> To: allstat@...
>
> Pushing the limit on AllStats rules (sorry moderator), the following is
> concise and to the point. You will note that it is a precis from Analytic
> Bridge, which I think gives it some clout.
>
> For those who have access to the internet, the link at the end of this
> letter completely disproves the association between the observed climate
> change and emitted carbon. This is from reputable, published scientists.
> Interesting, at a time when a group of scientists have been found to be
> fudging the data because they did not fit.
>
> For those who do not have access to the net, or are just happy to read on, I
> will summarise key facts taken from the site.
> 1. If you're 29, there has been no global warming for your entire adult
> life.
> 2. July 2007 US Senate trip to Greenland to investigate fears of a
> glacier meltdown found that Greenland has been warming since the
> 1880's, but since 1955, temperature averages at Greenland stations have been
> colder than the period between 1881-1955.
> 3. Also, Greenland has cooled since the 1940s, with 1941 being the
> warmest year on record.
> 4. Vikings farmed this land during the mediaeval Warm Period.
> 5. 70% of the glaciers have been shrinking regularly since the end of the
> 1880's, while 80% of man-made CO2 emissions occurred after 1940.
> 6. The observed changes in weather are within natural variation (albeit
> somewhat extreme).
>
> To echo a recent Leicester Mercury editorial, how and why should so many
> governments
> have got it wrong ? This is the real question, not "Does CO2 cause climate
> change ?"
>
> Martin Holt
>
> http://www.analyticbridge.com/main/search/search?q=climate+change
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Kevin Kane" <kevink@...>
> To: <allstat@...>
> Sent: Monday, December 07, 2009 12:50 PM
> Subject: Re: Analysis of temperature on Earth
>
>
> > Hi,
> >
> > This is not my area of expertise, but if you look at the very informative
> > graphs provided, there does seem to be a trend - specifically - before
> > 1995 the global temperatures are lower, and after 1995 they seem to be
> > higher. With the amount of random noise, if you imagine where the
> > extrapolated line would head to, it would seem that you would need to
> > consider forecasting out to 50-100 years to see a clear difference between
> > current temperatures.
> >
> > Interesting...
> >
> > Kevin Kane
> > CEO, PHASTAR
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Anatoly Zhigljavsky" <ZhigljavskyAA@...>
> > To: <allstat@...>
> > Sent: Monday, December 07, 2009 9:45 AM
> > Subject: Analysis of temperature on Earth
> >
> >
> >> Dear allstat fellows,
> >>
> >> I though some of you might be interested in what I have done after I got
> >> tired of listening about Global Warming and ClimatGate.
> >>
> >> I decided to check the data myself. The result is the following website:
> >>
> >> http://www.cf.ac.uk/maths/subsites/zhigljavskyaa/climatechange/
> >>
> >>
> >> I did not find any signs of the Global Warming!
> >>
> >> Sorry, the statistical part in my short report is poor (this report is
> >> not
> >> for professional statisticians!)
> >>
> >> Any comments?
> >>
> >> Anatoly Zhigljavsky, Professor
> >> Chair in Statistics
> >> School of Mathematics
> >> Cardiff University
> >> CF24 4AG
> >> Cardiff, UK
> >>
> >> Tel. +44(0)2029875076
> >

_________________________________________________________________
Got more than one Hotmail account? Save time by linking them together
http://clk.atdmt.com/UKM/go/186394591/direct/01/

Climate change Threads

2009-12-07T11:35:16Z

Is this really the place for the tin foil hatters to congregate ?

> Date: Mon, 7 Dec 2009 14:50:23 +0000
> From: m861holt@...
> Subject: Climate change is not related to CO2
> To: allstat@...
>
> Pushing the limit on AllStats rules (sorry moderator), the following is
> concise and to the point. You will note that it is a precis from Analytic
> Bridge, which I think gives it some clout.
>
> For those who have access to the internet, the link at the end of this
> letter completely disproves the association between the observed climate
> change and emitted carbon. This is from reputable, published scientists.
> Interesting, at a time when a group of scientists have been found to be
> fudging the data because they did not fit.
>
> For those who do not have access to the net, or are just happy to read on, I
> will summarise key facts taken from the site.
> 1. If you're 29, there has been no global warming for your entire adult
> life.
> 2. July 2007 US Senate trip to Greenland to investigate fears of a
> glacier meltdown found that Greenland has been warming since the
> 1880's, but since 1955, temperature averages at Greenland stations have been
> colder than the period between 1881-1955.
> 3. Also, Greenland has cooled since the 1940s, with 1941 being the
> warmest year on record.
> 4. Vikings farmed this land during the mediaeval Warm Period.
> 5. 70% of the glaciers have been shrinking regularly since the end of the
> 1880's, while 80% of man-made CO2 emissions occurred after 1940.
> 6. The observed changes in weather are within natural variation (albeit
> somewhat extreme).
>
> To echo a recent Leicester Mercury editorial, how and why should so many
> governments
> have got it wrong ? This is the real question, not "Does CO2 cause climate
> change ?"
>
> Martin Holt
>
> http://www.analyticbridge.com/main/search/search?q=climate+change
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Kevin Kane" <kevink@...>
> To: <allstat@...>
> Sent: Monday, December 07, 2009 12:50 PM
> Subject: Re: Analysis of temperature on Earth
>
>
> > Hi,
> >
> > This is not my area of expertise, but if you look at the very informative
> > graphs provided, there does seem to be a trend - specifically - before
> > 1995 the global temperatures are lower, and after 1995 they seem to be
> > higher. With the amount of random noise, if you imagine where the
> > extrapolated line would head to, it would seem that you would need to
> > consider forecasting out to 50-100 years to see a clear difference between
> > current temperatures.
> >
> > Interesting...
> >
> > Kevin Kane
> > CEO, PHASTAR
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Anatoly Zhigljavsky" <ZhigljavskyAA@...>
> > To: <allstat@...>
> > Sent: Monday, December 07, 2009 9:45 AM
> > Subject: Analysis of temperature on Earth
> >
> >
> >> Dear allstat fellows,
> >>
> >> I though some of you might be interested in what I have done after I got
> >> tired of listening about Global Warming and ClimatGate.
> >>
> >> I decided to check the data myself. The result is the following website:
> >>
> >> http://www.cf.ac.uk/maths/subsites/zhigljavskyaa/climatechange/
> >>
> >>
> >> I did not find any signs of the Global Warming!
> >>
> >> Sorry, the statistical part in my short report is poor (this report is
> >> not
> >> for professional statisticians!)
> >>
> >> Any comments?
> >>
> >> Anatoly Zhigljavsky, Professor
> >> Chair in Statistics
> >> School of Mathematics
> >> Cardiff University
> >> CF24 4AG
> >> Cardiff, UK
> >>
> >> Tel. +44(0)2029875076
> >

_________________________________________________________________
Got more than one Hotmail account? Save time by linking them together
http://clk.atdmt.com/UKM/go/186394591/direct/01/

Re: Analysis of temperature on Earth

2009-12-07T09:04:59Z

I am a statistician and have specialized in time series analysis for a
number of years. I have often been "too busy" to participate in these kind
of dialogues. Perhaps it is time that I got "unbusy" and deliver some time
series expertise to the subject at hand. Let me state up front that I am
totally untrained with respect to the relevant underlying meteorological
"causes" for this data and simply stated "I walk (talk) where angels fear to
tread".

I thank others for pointing me to the raw data, 372 months (starting
1978/12) of 25 measurements of warming phenomena.

Using 372 monthly values of a single time series to draw inference can be
flawed for a number of reasons:

1. The time span is too short to capture longer cycles which might
explain some of the level shifts that are discussed below.

2. Using a single series to analyze/predict the future is analogous to
a car driver using the rear window to forecast future road conditions.
Tricky business indeed. Single series analysis(ARIMA) suggests somewhat
naively that the past causes the future while causal models (Transfer
Functions) embody the impact of user-suggested supporting variables. I did
not have access to possible causal series data and if any reader can help in
this regard, I would be willing to incorporate them and report back to the
list.

3. Analysts and most software packages often confuse trend with level
shifts. Level shifts and trends are both intercept changes but reflect
totally different impacts. It is necessary to clearly make this distinction.

Commentary like " This is not my area of expertise, but if you look at
the very informative graphs provided, there does seem to be a trend -
specifically - before 1995 the global temperatures are lower, and after 1995
they seem to be higher." Are descriptive in nature and often lead to
spurious conclusions as a before and after analysis/conclusion is not proof
of a trend but rather a statement of "mean shift".

I have analyzed the data and placed the results/graphs/reports on our web
site at http://www.autobox.com/warm.zip . The graphs and analyses clearly
suggest strong seasonal structure. The conclusions are (among others) that
approximately half the measures suggest a statistical level shift at or
about the beginning of 1998. These are Level or Step shifts not trends. The
csv files in the referenced URL support this conclusion.

I hope this helps our greater understanding of this data and I look forward
to comments on this work.

Dave Reilly
Automatic Forecasting Systems
http://www.autobox.com

Dave Reilly
Senior Vice President
Automatic Forecasting Systems
www.autobox.com
215-675-0652 (office)
215-353-7087 (cell)

-----Original Message-----
From: A UK-based worldwide e-mail broadcast system mailing list
[mailto:allstat@...] On Behalf Of John McKellar
Sent: Monday, December 07, 2009 7:18 AM
To: allstat@...
Subject: Re: Analysis of temperature on Earth

Dear AllStat,

Professor Zhigljavsky raises some valid concerns - though I suspect he's
fallen into the same error as everyone else of analysing inferior data.
The problem is inferior to what and how do we access sufficient data? Are
the ice cores from the arctic or Antarctic not pretty definitive?

Then, in such a complex model; there are bound to be many ways to analyse it
(under different assumptions); we need the results to be consistent to build
confidence.

Is there anyone on the list who feels able to comment on the statistical
analyses used in the climate debate?

As for the East Anglia debacle, where (depending on how you discuss it)
scientists hid data, changed data or questioned its usefulness. I'll never
describe transforming my data as "a trick" again!

Regards

John

-----Original Message-----
From: A UK-based worldwide e-mail broadcast system mailing list
[mailto:allstat@...] On Behalf Of Kwaku Damoah
Sent: Monday, December 07, 2009 10:52 AM
To: allstat@...
Subject: Re: Analysis of temperature on Earth

Dear Allstat,
Global warming is a phenomenon which is forecast over a long period of time
and as such more data is needed to be able to justify this conclusion, I
guess data over different sub-regions/continents for a period spanning not
less than 100 years is needed.
Kwaku Damoah

-----Original Message-----
From: A UK-based worldwide e-mail broadcast system mailing list
[mailto:allstat@...] On Behalf Of Anatoly Zhigljavsky
Sent: 07 December 2009 09:45
To: allstat@...
Subject: Analysis of temperature on Earth

Dear allstat fellows,

I though some of you might be interested in what I have done after I got
tired of listening about Global Warming and ClimatGate.

I decided to check the data myself. The result is the following website:

http://www.cf.ac.uk/maths/subsites/zhigljavskyaa/climatechange/

I did not find any signs of the Global Warming!

Sorry, the statistical part in my short report is poor (this report is not
for professional statisticians!)

Any comments?

Anatoly Zhigljavsky, Professor
Chair in Statistics
School of Mathematics
Cardiff University
CF24 4AG
Cardiff, UK

Tel. +44(0)2029875076
No virus found in this incoming message.
Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
Version: 8.5.426 / Virus Database: 270.14.95/2547 - Release Date: 12/06/09
19:37:00

LASR 2010 - second call for abstracts

2009-12-07T08:04:58Z

LASR 2010
High-Throughput Sequencing, Proteins and Statistics
Leeds, UK 6th - 8th July 2010

Second Call for Abstracts

We are inviting abstracts from anyone wishing to give a contributed
presentation at the LASR workshop 2010. Abstracts should be one or
two paragraphs in length, outlining the work that you would like to
present. Please indicate whether you would prefer to present your
work as a short talk or as a poster presentation.

The deadline for abstract submission is 31 January 2010.

If your abstract is accepted, we will invite you to submit an extended
abstract of up to four pages for inclusion in the workshop proceedings.

The 2010 Leeds Annual Statistical Research Workshop will focus on
developments at the interface between statistical methodology and
bioinformatics and more generally in interdisciplinary statistics.

We are pleased to announce that the following leading statisticians
and bioinformaticians are expected to speak at LASR 2010.

Fred Bookstein (University of Vienna, University of Washington)
Walter Gilks (University of Leeds, Rothamsted Research)
Thomas Hamelryck (University of Copenhagen)
Richard Jackson (University of Leeds)
John Kent (University of Leeds)
Arthur Lesk (Pennsylvania State University)
Kanti Mardia (University of Leeds)
Geoff McLachlan (University of Queensland)
Terry Speed (University of California, Berkeley)
Paul Verrier (Rothamsted Research)
David Westhead (University of Leeds)
Ernst Wit (University of Groningen)

For more details, please see the workshop web site

http://www.maths.leeds.ac.uk/lasr2010/

Best wishes,
Jochen Voss (on behalf of the organisers)
--
Department of Statistics, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT
http://www.maths.leeds.ac.uk/lasr2010/
workshop@...

EXPERT STATISTICIAN

2009-12-07T07:53:13Z

Dear All,

'DATATECH PHARMACEUTICAL' have the following position...

EXPERT STATISTICIAN
BASED IN: SWITZERLAND

Our client's aim is to discover, develop and successfully market innovative
products to prevent and cure diseases, to ease suffering and to enhance the
quality of life. My client is currently looking for a qualified and highly motivated
Expert Statistician with a strong Pharmaceutical background to join their team
in Basel.

As an Expert Statistician you will provide operational oversight for all the
Integrated Information Sciences and Translational Science deliverables for
assigned projects and studies, including full responsibility for timelines and
quality standards. Scope of projects may include those in very early phases of
development leading up to a proof of concept (PoC), but also the TS aspects
of late phase projects and submissions.

You will provide scientific input and advice to project and study teams, and
provide guidance and leadership with respect to innovative approaches to
study design and decision making; ensure appropriate involvements of M&S,
Statistical Methodology and other internal or external statistical consultants in
all assigned projects. Contribute to Clinical Development Plans for assigned
projects.

Be accountable to the Therapeutic Area lead statistician in the respective TA
and to the global head of Scientific Support in IIS/TS for timeliness and high
quality of all IIS/TS deliverables in assigned projects.

Support evaluation of in-licensing opportunities as appropriate. Provide
technical statistical leadership within the TS/Scientific Support group, and
may serve as mentor to more junior members of staff. May contribute to major
potentially cross-functional initiatives to improve infrastructure and efficiency,
or may lead a small initiative herself/himself.

Experience needed:

*University degree in Statistics or Mathematics (Ph.D. or MSc. Level) with at
least five years of relevant experience in the field of clinical trials with strong
statistical skills and knowledge of clinical trials methodology
*Fluent in English, written and spoken.
*Experience gained in all main tasks of a Senior Statistician, and experience as
project statistician for international clinical teams or comparable experience in
similar ED role.
*Good leadership skills and very good project management skills.
*Very good communication and presentation skills
*Good knowledge of the drug development process and relevant HA guidelines.
*Basic coaching and mentoring skills.
*Strong knowledge and expertise in statistics and its applications in clinical
trials.
*Experience with implementation of novel methods and/or innovative
strategies.

For more details on this outstanding position, a full job description or an
informal chat, please call Natasha Grace at Datatech on 01256 314640 or
email admin@...

Take part in our fantastic referral scheme! If you have a friend or colleague
who would be interested in this role, please refer them to us. For each
relevant candidate that you introduce to us (there is no limit) and we place,
you will be entitled to our generous gift / voucher scheme.

About Datatech Search & Selection:-
Datatech is part of the highly successful `Evergreen Group`, where we
recognise the value in lasting relationships based on shared opportunity and
trust. Our aim is to identify, qualify and deliver talented professionals for our
clients, whilst enhancing the careers of those that we place. For more
information please look at our website or send us a copy of your CV to
admin@....

For more details on this great opportunity, a full job description or an informal
chat, please call Natasha Grace at Datatech on +44 (0) 1256 314640 or email
to: admin@....

training events in 2010 at the University of Reading, UK

2009-12-07T07:26:08Z

We are announcing a number of training events taking place during the
first quarter of 2010 at the University of Reading, UK.
For more detailed information and registration forms please see
http://www.reading.ac.uk/ssc providing your address and/or fax number,
or email statistics-courses@....

Statistics for University Administrators
http://www.reading.ac.uk/ssc/courses/st4adm.html
******************************************
Date: 28 January 2010. Duration: 1 day. Price: 305 GBP

A Review of Basic Statistics
http://www.reading.ac.uk/ssc/courses/review10.html
*******************************************
Dates: 8-9 February 2010. Duration: 2 days. Price: 565 GBP

Regression Analysis: A Hands-on Approach
http://www.reading.ac.uk/ssc/courses/regress.html
********************************************
Dates: 10-11 February 2010. Duration: 2 days. Price: 565 GBP

Survival Analysis for Medical and Health Professionals
http://www.reading.ac.uk/ssc/courses/surv3.html
****************************************************
Dates: 17-18 February 2010. Duration: 2 days. Price: 565 GBP

Practical Bayesian Data Analysis
http://www.reading.ac.uk/ssc/courses/bayes.html
****************************************************
Dates: 24-26 February 2010. Duration: 3 days. Price: 975 GBP

The Incomplete and Utter Guide to Statistics
http://www.reading.ac.uk/ssc/courses/res_stats.html
**********************************************
Dates: 8-9 March 2010. Duration: 2 days. Price: 565 GBP

Modelling Binary and Categorical Repeated Measurement Data
http://www.reading.ac.uk/ssc/courses/mbcrmd.html
*************************************************
Dates: 15-16 March 2010. Duration: 2 days. Price: 665 GBP

Microsoft(r) Excel 2007 for Statistics? What you can and cannot do
http://www.reading.ac.uk/ssc/courses/excel1.html
*****************************************************
Dates: 17-18 March 2010. Duration: 2 days. Price: 565 GBP

Taking Microsoft(r) Excel 2007 Further: Macros for Data Management and
Statistics http://www.reading.ac.uk/ssc/courses/excel2.html
**********************************************************
Date: 19 March 2010. Duration: 1 day. Price: 305 GBP

Please note all of our training courses may be commissioned for delivery
at your site.

Reminder: One-Day Meeting on Morphometrics and Statistical Shape Analysis

2009-12-07T07:21:55Z

This is a second reminder of the One-Day Meeting on Morphometrics and Statistical Shape Analysis.

It will take place on 11th January 2010 at University of Kent, UK.

The registration deadline is 11th December 2009.

Further details are found in : http://www.flywings.org.uk/MorphoMeet10/index.htm.

The organizers

Climate change is not related to CO2

2009-12-07T06:50:23Z

Pushing the limit on AllStats rules (sorry moderator), the following is
concise and to the point. You will note that it is a precis from Analytic
Bridge, which I think gives it some clout.

For those who have access to the internet, the link at the end of this
letter completely disproves the association between the observed climate
change and emitted carbon. This is from reputable, published scientists.
Interesting, at a time when a group of scientists have been found to be
fudging the data because they did not fit.

For those who do not have access to the net, or are just happy to read on, I
will summarise key facts taken from the site.
1. If you're 29, there has been no global warming for your entire adult
life.
2. July 2007 US Senate trip to Greenland to investigate fears of a
glacier meltdown found that Greenland has been warming since the
1880's, but since 1955, temperature averages at Greenland stations have been
colder than the period between 1881-1955.
3. Also, Greenland has cooled since the 1940s, with 1941 being the
warmest year on record.
4. Vikings farmed this land during the mediaeval Warm Period.
5. 70% of the glaciers have been shrinking regularly since the end of the
1880's, while 80% of man-made CO2 emissions occurred after 1940.
6. The observed changes in weather are within natural variation (albeit
somewhat extreme).

To echo a recent Leicester Mercury editorial, how and why should so many
governments
have got it wrong ? This is the real question, not "Does CO2 cause climate
change ?"

Martin Holt

http://www.analyticbridge.com/main/search/search?q=climate+change

----- Original Message -----
From: "Kevin Kane" <kevink@...>
To: <allstat@...>
Sent: Monday, December 07, 2009 12:50 PM
Subject: Re: Analysis of temperature on Earth

> Hi,
>
> This is not my area of expertise, but if you look at the very informative
> graphs provided, there does seem to be a trend - specifically - before
> 1995 the global temperatures are lower, and after 1995 they seem to be
> higher. With the amount of random noise, if you imagine where the
> extrapolated line would head to, it would seem that you would need to
> consider forecasting out to 50-100 years to see a clear difference between
> current temperatures.
>
> Interesting...
>
> Kevin Kane
> CEO, PHASTAR
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Anatoly Zhigljavsky" <ZhigljavskyAA@...>
> To: <allstat@...>
> Sent: Monday, December 07, 2009 9:45 AM
> Subject: Analysis of temperature on Earth
>
>
>> Dear allstat fellows,
>>
>> I though some of you might be interested in what I have done after I got
>> tired of listening about Global Warming and ClimatGate.
>>
>> I decided to check the data myself. The result is the following website:
>>
>> http://www.cf.ac.uk/maths/subsites/zhigljavskyaa/climatechange/
>>
>>
>> I did not find any signs of the Global Warming!
>>
>> Sorry, the statistical part in my short report is poor (this report is
>> not
>> for professional statisticians!)
>>
>> Any comments?
>>
>> Anatoly Zhigljavsky, Professor
>> Chair in Statistics
>> School of Mathematics
>> Cardiff University
>> CF24 4AG
>> Cardiff, UK
>>
>> Tel. +44(0)2029875076
>

Re: Analysis of temperature on Earth

2009-12-07T04:50:29Z

Hi,

This is not my area of expertise, but if you look at the very informative
graphs provided, there does seem to be a trend - specifically - before 1995
the global temperatures are lower, and after 1995 they seem to be higher.
With the amount of random noise, if you imagine where the extrapolated line
would head to, it would seem that you would need to consider forecasting out
to 50-100 years to see a clear difference between current temperatures.

Interesting...

Kevin Kane
CEO, PHASTAR

----- Original Message -----
From: "Anatoly Zhigljavsky" <ZhigljavskyAA@...>
To: <allstat@...>
Sent: Monday, December 07, 2009 9:45 AM
Subject: Analysis of temperature on Earth

> Dear allstat fellows,
>
> I though some of you might be interested in what I have done after I got
> tired of listening about Global Warming and ClimatGate.
>
> I decided to check the data myself. The result is the following website:
>
> http://www.cf.ac.uk/maths/subsites/zhigljavskyaa/climatechange/
>
>
> I did not find any signs of the Global Warming!
>
> Sorry, the statistical part in my short report is poor (this report is not
> for professional statisticians!)
>
> Any comments?
>
> Anatoly Zhigljavsky, Professor
> Chair in Statistics
> School of Mathematics
> Cardiff University
> CF24 4AG
> Cardiff, UK
>
> Tel. +44(0)2029875076

Climate Change: Where are the statisticians?

2009-12-07T04:19:57Z

Dear Allstatters,

First of all, can I thank Anatoly Zhigljavsky for having the courage to open
the debate on global warming on ALLSTAT. Although this is not an open forum
and I do not want people to breach the ALLSTAT guidelines, I would be very
interested to hear your responses to my questions. With the Copenhagen
conference taking place, it is a topical subject and I am very happy to take
responsibility for preparing a summary of the responses I receive once the
conference itself is over which is next Friday I believe.

Some contributors have already mentioned that Anatoly's argument was based
on only 30 years or so which I agree is not long enough for any definitive
conclusions. Personally, I believe the debate needs to start with whether
today's climate is significantly different from the past. For me, the past
has to include the years before industrialisation so as to avoid issues
with confusing correlation with cause & effect which is a real risk if you
only look at the last 100/150 years. To my mind, we need to look at the
last 1,000 or 2,000 years. Unfortunately, since we have no thermometer
temperature records going back before 1700 (the Central England Temperature
series is I believe the longest such record), this requires the use of proxy
measures such as tree rings, ice cores, coral reefs, etc which have been
calibrated against thermometer records. If you reread this paragraph, you
will see that what I have written is an inherently statistical subject
involving time series analysis, multivariate analysis, modelling, sample
design, etc. If we statisticians are not involved in this work, then the
possibility of errors in both the sceptics & warmers camps are enormous.
Yes I know scientists can be trained in statistical methods, but we all know
that even then, they are capable of making statistical errors with profound
consequences for us either way.

After reading a number of blogs, articles & websites, my perspective is that
the warmers & sceptics do not radically disagree over the temperature record
for the last 100 years or so but they violently disagree over the last 1,000
years. At the bottom of this email are 3 links which seems to capture the
heart of this particular argument as far as I can see. Frankly, by the time
I got to the 3rd link, I was heartily sick of personal vitriol being cast by
both sides with each attacking each other's motives instead of the methods
used. In particular, I am finding it hard to evaluate the statistical side
of the argument and I am left with the belief that statisticians are simply
not involved in the climate change debate to the degree we should be.

So to find out what your views are, I would like to ask you the following
questions. I am very happy to collate responses by the end of the
conference and publish the results. I'm sure some of you will criticise my
survey design (I've tried to be Bayesian here!) but I'm only trying to do an
indicative survey here.

1. Before reading the above links, how knowledgeable do you think you
are about the science and statistics behind the global warming debate?
Please respond on a scale from 1 to 9 where 1 is no knowledge at all, 9 is
you know everything.

2. Do you work in the field of climate research in any way? Basically
a yes/no question, not interested in your life's CV!

3. Prior to reading the 3 links below, can quantify your prior belief
in the relative merits of the warmist/sceptic views? Happy for you to
choose your own way of quantifying this but as an example, I would have said
my prior belief was 60:40 in favour of the sceptic camp.

4. On reading the 3 links below and any others you find, has your
prior belief changed? If so, how would you now quantify your posterior
belief in the light of what you have read?

5. If your posterior belief is little changed from your prior, what do
you think is missing from the debate that would help you change your belief
either way? Open question here.

6. Should statisticians be more involved in the debate? If so, how
should this happen? This is an open question and I will do my best to
summarise.

Here are the 3 links I have found (among others) but no doubt you may wish
to click through the other links listed.

. The people at the centre of the ClimateGate storm include authors
of a famous paper published in 1999 which has since become known as the
hockey stick. It is a central piece of the IPCC report. You can find a link
to an updated version published in 2008 this near the bottom of this BBC
article
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/sci_tech/2009/copenhagen/8393855.stm .
The authors are Mann, Zhang, Hughes et al but as you can see, links to a
number of other sources are given as well.

. The original hockey stick paper was criticised by Steve McIntyre
as explained in this essay written by Chris Monckton
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/monckton/monckton_wh
at_hockey_stick.pdf

. I have not found any paper directly written in response to
McIntyre's criticisms but this blog on the real climate website seems to be
the best so far
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/myths-vs-fact-regardin
g-the-hockey-stick/

Kind Regards

Nigel Marriott

Statistical Consultant

<http://www.marriott-stats.com/> www.marriott-stats.com

Ground Floor, 21 Marlborough Buildings, Bath BA1 2LY, United Kingdom

Tel (office) +44 (0)1225 489033

Fax +44 (0)870 6221969

Marriott Statistical Consulting Limited, Company No. 5577275, VAT No.
883304029

Registered in England, Registered Office - Equity House, 4-6 School Road,
Tilehurst, Reading, RG31 5AL

Re: Analysis of temperature on Earth

2009-12-07T04:18:27Z

Dear AllStat,

Professor Zhigljavsky raises some valid concerns - though I suspect he's
fallen into the same error as everyone else of analysing inferior data.
The problem is inferior to what and how do we access sufficient data? Are
the ice cores from the arctic or Antarctic not pretty definitive?

Then, in such a complex model; there are bound to be many ways to analyse it
(under different assumptions); we need the results to be consistent to build
confidence.

Is there anyone on the list who feels able to comment on the statistical
analyses used in the climate debate?

As for the East Anglia debacle, where (depending on how you discuss it)
scientists hid data, changed data or questioned its usefulness. I'll never
describe transforming my data as "a trick" again!

Regards

John

-----Original Message-----
From: A UK-based worldwide e-mail broadcast system mailing list
[mailto:allstat@...] On Behalf Of Kwaku Damoah
Sent: Monday, December 07, 2009 10:52 AM
To: allstat@...
Subject: Re: Analysis of temperature on Earth

Dear Allstat,
Global warming is a phenomenon which is forecast over a long period of time
and as such more data is needed to be able to justify this conclusion, I
guess data over different sub-regions/continents for a period spanning not
less than 100 years is needed.
Kwaku Damoah

-----Original Message-----
From: A UK-based worldwide e-mail broadcast system mailing list
[mailto:allstat@...] On Behalf Of Anatoly Zhigljavsky
Sent: 07 December 2009 09:45
To: allstat@...
Subject: Analysis of temperature on Earth

Dear allstat fellows,

I though some of you might be interested in what I have done after I got
tired of listening about Global Warming and ClimatGate.

I decided to check the data myself. The result is the following website:

http://www.cf.ac.uk/maths/subsites/zhigljavskyaa/climatechange/

I did not find any signs of the Global Warming!

Sorry, the statistical part in my short report is poor (this report is not
for professional statisticians!)

Any comments?

Anatoly Zhigljavsky, Professor
Chair in Statistics
School of Mathematics
Cardiff University
CF24 4AG
Cardiff, UK

Tel. +44(0)2029875076
No virus found in this incoming message.
Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
Version: 8.5.426 / Virus Database: 270.14.95/2547 - Release Date: 12/06/09
19:37:00

Re: Analysis of temperature on Earth

2009-12-07T02:52:23Z

Dear Allstat,
Global warming is a phenomenon which is forecast over a long period of time
and as such more data is needed to be able to justify this conclusion, I
guess data over different sub-regions/continents for a period spanning not
less than 100 years is needed.
Kwaku Damoah

-----Original Message-----
From: A UK-based worldwide e-mail broadcast system mailing list
[mailto:allstat@...] On Behalf Of Anatoly Zhigljavsky
Sent: 07 December 2009 09:45
To: allstat@...
Subject: Analysis of temperature on Earth

Dear allstat fellows,

I though some of you might be interested in what I have done after I got
tired of listening about Global Warming and ClimatGate.

I decided to check the data myself. The result is the following website:

http://www.cf.ac.uk/maths/subsites/zhigljavskyaa/climatechange/

I did not find any signs of the Global Warming!

Sorry, the statistical part in my short report is poor (this report is not
for professional statisticians!)

Any comments?

Anatoly Zhigljavsky, Professor
Chair in Statistics
School of Mathematics
Cardiff University
CF24 4AG
Cardiff, UK

Tel. +44(0)2029875076
No virus found in this incoming message.
Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
Version: 8.5.426 / Virus Database: 270.14.95/2547 - Release Date: 12/06/09
19:37:00

CONFERENCE: Statistical Methods for Outbreak Detection - First Announcement

2009-12-07T02:47:15Z

The Open University Statistics Group presents

STATISTICAL METHODS FOR OUTBREAK DETECTION

a one-day conference at the Open University, Milton Keynes, UK on Wednesday May 19th 2010.

The conference will focus on statistical methods for prospective surveillance of outbreaks of infectious diseases and their early detection and control. The conference will feature a broad range of invited talks from statisticians and epidemiologists, from the UK and elsewhere in Europe, working on epidemic surveillance and outbreak detection, including syndromic surveillance, laboratory-based surveillance, surveillance of specific infections such as influenza, and surveillance of mortality attributable to infections.

We invite contributed poster presentations on the conference theme. The conference fee of 30 pounds covers registration, lunch and refreshments on the day. We gratefully acknowledge financial support from the NIHR.

Full details of the draft programme and conference arrangements, as well as the registration form and other relevant information, may be obtained from the conference website at http://statistics.open.ac.uk/SMOD.

Should you require further information please email MCS-Statistics-Conferences@....

The Open University is incorporated by Royal Charter (RC 000391), an exempt charity in England & Wales and a charity registered in Scotland (SC 038302).

Re: Analysis of temperature on Earth

2009-12-07T02:40:18Z

Dear Anatoly,

I suggest you get hold of data from a century or
so back before even trying to make forecasts
about global warming. An alternative, of course,
would be to collect data for the coming century,
-but I am afraid there won't be too much point in
doing any prognoses whatsoever then.

Kind Regards

Göran Granath
PhD, Geochemist

At 10:45 2009-12-07, you wrote:

>Dear allstat fellows,
>
>I though some of you might be interested in what I have done after I got
>tired of listening about Global Warming and ClimatGate.
>
>I decided to check the data myself. The result is the following website:
>
>http://www.cf.ac.uk/maths/subsites/zhigljavskyaa/climatechange/
>
>
>I did not find any signs of the Global Warming!
>
>Sorry, the statistical part in my short report is poor (this report is not
>for professional statisticians!)
>
>Any comments?
>
>Anatoly Zhigljavsky, Professor
>Chair in Statistics
>School of Mathematics
>Cardiff University
>CF24 4AG
>Cardiff, UK
>
>Tel. +44(0)2029875076

Goran 'Joe' Granath, PhD Phone: +46-18-30 16 67
Ariadne Exploration AB E-mail: joe@...
Malma Ringväg 1
S-756 45 Uppsala
Sweden

Re: Analysis of temperature on Earth

2009-12-07T02:04:06Z

With 20 years of data only?
=========================
Anastassia Baxevani, PhD
Department of Mathematical Sciences
University of Gothenburg
Chalmers University of Technology
Göteborg, Sweden
Office:+46 31 772 5360
========================
________________________________________
From: A UK-based worldwide e-mail broadcast system mailing list [allstat@...] On Behalf Of Anatoly Zhigljavsky [ZhigljavskyAA@...]
Sent: Monday, December 07, 2009 10:45 AM
To: allstat@...
Subject: Analysis of temperature on Earth

Dear allstat fellows,

I though some of you might be interested in what I have done after I got
tired of listening about Global Warming and ClimatGate.

I decided to check the data myself. The result is the following website:

http://www.cf.ac.uk/maths/subsites/zhigljavskyaa/climatechange/

I did not find any signs of the Global Warming!

Sorry, the statistical part in my short report is poor (this report is not
for professional statisticians!)

Any comments?

Anatoly Zhigljavsky, Professor
Chair in Statistics
School of Mathematics
Cardiff University
CF24 4AG
Cardiff, UK

Tel. +44(0)2029875076

Analysis of temperature on Earth

2009-12-07T01:45:24Z

Dear allstat fellows,

I though some of you might be interested in what I have done after I got
tired of listening about Global Warming and ClimatGate.

I decided to check the data myself. The result is the following website:

http://www.cf.ac.uk/maths/subsites/zhigljavskyaa/climatechange/

I did not find any signs of the Global Warming!

Sorry, the statistical part in my short report is poor (this report is not
for professional statisticians!)

Any comments?

Anatoly Zhigljavsky, Professor
Chair in Statistics
School of Mathematics
Cardiff University
CF24 4AG
Cardiff, UK

Tel. +44(0)2029875076

JOB: Research Fellow in Medical Statistics post, University of Nottingham

2009-12-07T01:08:19Z

Please find below details of a vacancy at the University of Nottingham. Please
note the closing date is 10th December 2009.

Research Fellow in Medical Statistics (Full or part-time) Reference : MED538X1
Closing Date : 10 December 2009 Salary : £27,183 to £35,469 per annum (pro
rata for part-time), depending upon qualifications and experience (salary can
progress to £38,757 per annum (pro rata), subject to performance).

Applications are invited for the above post in the NIHR Research Design
Service for the East Midlands (RDS-EM) to provide methodological support and
advice to NHS researchers and others working in partnership with the NHS
who are developing and designing high quality research proposals for
submission to national, peer reviewed funding competitions. They will be
expected to provide statistical advice on the design and analysis of research
proposals and participate in the delivery of training events provided by the
RDS.

From the date of appointment until 31 March 2012, the role will be seconded
to the National Biomedical Research Unit in Hearing (NBRUH) for 60% of the
time (3 days per week). This part of the role will involve working with a small
team of scientists, from a variety of academic and clinical backgrounds, to
design, develop, analyse and disseminate translational research proposals in
areas of hearing and learning. The remaining 40% of the time will be spent
undertaking RDS duties. In April 2012, if NBRUH funding is continued, this split
role will continue. If in 2012, NBRUH funding is not renewed, the role will revert
to full-time in the RDS.

This post is suitable for one person working full-time or for two people each
undertaking one part of the role on a part-time basis. If the role was shared
by two people it would be expected that one person would work for 40% of
their time for the RDS and the second person would work for 60% of their time
for NBRUH. If NBRUH funding is not renewed, both roles would continue within
the RDS contract. Applications are invited from individuals wishing to
undertake the whole role on a full-time basis or from individuals interested in
only one of the two parts of the role. Candidates should specify in their
application whether they are interested in the full-time post or one of the two
part-time posts. If it is the latter, they should indicate which part of the role
they would prefer.

Candidates should have a PhD (or equivalent experience) in a subject relevant
to health services research (e.g. statistics, epidemiology) and a higher degree
in medical, applied or social statistics.

Informal enquiries may be addressed to Dr H Fortnum, Email:
Heather.Fortnum@... or Dr S Armstrong, Email:
Sarah.Armstrong@.... Please note that applications sent
directly to these email addresses will not be accepted.

This is a re-advertisement and previous candidates need not apply.

Further details are available at http://jobs.nottingham.ac.uk/MED538X1

MRes/PhD in Statistical Bioinformatics

2009-12-06T06:28:09Z

Please bring this studentship opportunity to the attention of final
year undergraduates and other potentially interested parties.

BBSRC and MRC MRes/PhD Studentship - Statistical Modelling and
Inference of Complex Genetic Interactions in Budding Yeast

* Newcastle University, UK
* Reference Code: IAH10

Details:

Supervisors: Professor Darren Wilkinson and Professor David Lydall
Institute: Institute for Ageing and Health
Duration of the award: 4 years (MRes Medical and Molecular Biosciences
followed by a three-year PhD)
Start date: September 2010

Ageing is a complex phenomenon and can best be described as a
progressive failure of cell maintenance/repair pathways. We are using
systematic and high-throughput approaches to study these pathways in
the model organism budding yeast. The robotic facilities available
within Newcastle's Centre for Integrated Systems Biology of Ageing and
Nutrition (CISBAN) enable us to study many thousands of yeast mutant
strains simultaneously.

Data generated by the robotic technology varies but most typically
consists of images of plates containing spots in 384-spot format with
each spot representing the growth of a different yeast mutant strain.
Image analysis can be used to extract a quantitative measure of growth
for each spot, but the resulting data set is large, and has a complex
structure requiring sophisticated statistical modelling for
satisfactory analysis.

This project will consider the development of appropriate statistical
models for data normalisation and analysis leading to the
identification of sets of genes which show unusual interactions with
genes of interest, taking into account the issues of multiple testing.
Bayesian generalised hierarchical linear models will be developed for
simultaneous normalisation and analysis, correcting for plate and
spot-location effects. These will be coupled to dynamic models of
colony growth allowing probabilistic inference to be made regarding
the presence and magnitude of genetic interactions. Software for
analysis will be developed using the R statistical programming
language, and incorporated into the BioConductoR suite of
bioinformatics packages.

The successful candidate will develop a range of important skills at
the life-sciences interface (including basic wet-lab skills). The
statistical methods developed will be applied to data being generated
within CISBAN to help identify and characterise eukaryotic genes
involved in cell maintenance and cell repair pathways.

Person Specification
You should have, or expect to achieve, an upper-second-class Honours
degree, or equivalent, in mathematical sciences or a closely related
discipline. An interest in the applications of computational
statistical methods to problems in modern biology is essential.

Value of the Award and Eligibility
MRC and BBSRC eligibility criteria apply and you must have a relevant
connection to the UK. Depending on how you meet the criteria, you may
be entitled to a full award (covers fees and an annual stipend which
was £13,290 for 2009) or a partial award (covers fees only).

How to Apply
To apply for the studentship please complete the University's online
postgraduate application form, selecting 'Master of Research/Doctor of
Philosophy (Medical Sciences)', and quoting the reference
number IAH10. Please attach a copy of your CV and a covering letter to
your application.

Closing date for applications: this post is only available until a
suitable candidate is appointed so early application is advised.

Further details:

http://www.ncl.ac.uk/postgraduate/funding/search/list/iah10

--
Prof Darren Wilkinson
d.j.wilkinson@...
http://www.staff.ncl.ac.uk/d.j.wilkinson/

Call for papers RSS meeting on vignetting

2009-12-05T07:34:40Z

Royal Statistical Society
Call for Papers
Anchoring Vignettes in Social Science Research
17th November 2010

The Royal Statistical Society is pleased to announce that it will host a
meeting at RSS in London on the 17th November 2010, on the methodology and
application of Anchoring vignettes in social sciences. The meeting will be
jointly organised by the General Applications Section and the Journal of the
Royal Statistical Society, Series A (Statistics in Society). The organisers
are soliciting submissions that address this theme from its statistical
foundations to its various applications in all sciences.

The aims of the meeting are:
- To bring together statisticians and scientists working in this rapidly
developing area.
- To show how anchoring vignettes can deal with the issue of response
endogeneity when using self-reported categorical variables.
- To demonstrate to interested non-statisticians the value of these approaches.
- To stimulate the submission of a set of papers suitable for publication in
a themed issue of the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A.

Acceptance of a paper for presentation at the meeting will be conditional on
production of a draft written version which adequately addresses any
suggestions from a peer review process. This peer review (prior to the
meeting) will form the start of the usual refereeing process for the
Journal. It is the intention that papers will have the potential for
publication in the Journal, although this will be subject to further review
following the meeting.

PAPER SUBMISSION PROCEDURE:

Abstract of not less than 500 words should be submitted by Friday, 15th
January 2010 to Arnaud Chevalier (arnaud.chevalier@...)
The organising committee (including Joint Editors of the Journal and
appropriate Guest Editors) will inform authors by the end of January 2010
whether their proposal is accepted. The authors of the selected abstracts
will be asked to provide a complete draft manuscript by Friday, 30th April 2010
The submitted manuscripts will then be subject to peer review following
the normal procedures of JRSS, Series A. After screening, papers not sent
out to reviewers will not be invited to present at the conference. Decisions
will be communicated by June 30th 2010
Other submissions will receive review comments by the end of August 2010
and will be asked to produce the conference paper incorporating these
comments by the end of October 2010.
Authors should then submit a further version incorporating any revisions
arising out of the meetings discussion by 10th December 2010.
Revisions will then continue to follow the Journals usual review process.
Acceptance of a paper for presenting at the meeting is not a guarantee that
the paper will be published in the Journal.

Please address any queries to either of:

Arnaud Chevalier (Royal Holloway, University of London):
arnaud.chevalier@...
Associate Editor JRSSA,

Antony Fielding (University of Bristol):
Antony.Fielding@...
Joint Editor JRSSA