Competition by internal expertise for F/OSS vendors

[Federico Lucifredi-2]

Hello fsb,
  some of you may remember my past comment along the line of "top
competitor to F/OSS service vendors is internal expertise, ergo
companies with clueful and sufficiently large support staff may choose
to deploy and support F/OSS by themselves more often than those without
said cluefulness. Conclusion: the F/OSS support market dredges for IT
shops inherently less than ideal in terms of support cost for the vendor
(they will indeed use what they purchase, extensively - it is not simple
"blame insurance" - and those customers are selectively expensive, as
opposed to an unbiased cut of the whole spectrum).

  We already discussed that in the past, including appropriate
counterpoints to the effect that consulting is for the less clueful, by
definition
(http://www.crynwr.com/cgi-bin/ezmlm-cgi?mss:11819:200612:cafocagihfkdchgnagon),
and we should not expect an unbiased sampling in the first place - blame
insurance should not be the primary scenario.

  However, a nice trend chart (
http://www.google.com/trends?q=centos%2C+rhel%2C+sles&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0 
) would seem to show that indeed, self-support is growing faster than
direct traditional support - what does that mean? Not sure, but seems
still worth thinking about.

  Best -F
--
_________________________________________
-- "'Problem' is a bleak word for challenge" - Richard Fish
(Federico L. Lucifredi) - flucifredi@...

[richbodo]

> Hello fsb,
>  some of you may remember my past comment along the line of "top
> competitor to F/OSS service vendors is internal expertise, ergo
> companies with clueful and sufficiently large support staff may choose
> to deploy and support F/OSS by themselves more often than those
> without said cluefulness. Conclusion: the F/OSS support market dredges
> for IT shops inherently less than ideal in terms of support cost for
> the vendor (they will indeed use what they purchase, extensively - it
> is not simple "blame insurance" - and those customers are selectively
> expensive, as opposed to an unbiased cut of the whole spectrum).
>

When I was consulting with FOSS I did notice an acute cheapo-effect -
much moreso than in the general IT consulting I did.  I recall Don Marti
used only two axes to evaluate customers into four quadrants -
Intelligence and Wealth.  I believe this was a result of his having
worked in the first FOSS marketing company.  I can't prove it, but I do
believe that relative to products that do not promote FOSS,
FOSS-promoting products skew customers to the Intelligent and
Extremely-Cheapo corner of the chart.

>  We already discussed that in the past, including appropriate
> counterpoints to the effect that consulting is for the less clueful,
> by definition
> (http://www.crynwr.com/cgi-bin/ezmlm-cgi?mss:11819:200612:cafocagihfkdchgnagon),
> and we should not expect an unbiased sampling in the first place -
> blame insurance should not be the primary scenario.
>
>  However, a nice trend chart (
> http://www.google.com/trends?q=centos%2C+rhel%2C+sles&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0 
> ) would seem to show that indeed, self-support is growing faster than
> direct traditional support - what does that mean? Not sure, but seems
> still worth thinking about.
>

Hard to say, this one looks a little more telling to me:

http://www.google.com/trends?q=centos%2C+rhel%2C+suse%2C+debian%2C+ubuntu&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0

Looks like Ubuntu is just kicking ass and taking mind-share.  Of course,
there is no telling what all that web traffic means in terms of market
share.

-Rich

[Alexander (Sasha) Wait]

On Tue, Aug 26, 2008 at 8:15 PM, Rich Bodo <richbodo@...> wrote:
> Hard to say, this one looks a little more telling to me:
>
> http://www.google.com/trends?q=centos%2C+rhel%2C+suse%2C+debian%2C+ubuntu&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0
>
> Looks like Ubuntu is just kicking ass and taking mind-share.  Of course,
> there is no telling what all that web traffic means in terms of market
> share.
>
http://www.google.com/trends?q=redhat%2C+novell%2C+ubuntu%2Capple%2Cmicrosoft&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0

I have to agree!  I have the impression that Ubuntu is giving Apple
and Microsoft genuine competition.  It's a little hard to believe for
a commercial user of GNU since 1993.

Sasha

[Federico Lucifredi-2]

Alexander Wait Zaranek wrote:

> On Tue, Aug 26, 2008 at 8:15 PM, Rich Bodo <richbodo@...> wrote:
>> Hard to say, this one looks a little more telling to me:
>>
>> http://www.google.com/trends?q=centos%2C+rhel%2C+suse%2C+debian%2C+ubuntu&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0
>>
>> Looks like Ubuntu is just kicking ass and taking mind-share.  Of course,
>> there is no telling what all that web traffic means in terms of market
>> share.
>>
> http://www.google.com/trends?q=redhat%2C+novell%2C+ubuntu%2Capple%2Cmicrosoft&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0
>
> I have to agree!  I have the impression that Ubuntu is giving Apple
> and Microsoft genuine competition.  It's a little hard to believe for
> a commercial user of GNU since 1993.

Well, this is mind-share we are looking at - and the data is clear.
Market share (as measured by dollars), they are nowhere yet. As measured
by units... it would be nice to see (but units are hard to get
information), despite the fact that you still need to look at $ if you
are thinking of this business-wise.

  Best -F

--
_________________________________________
-- "'Problem' is a bleak word for challenge" - Richard Fish
(Federico L. Lucifredi) - flucifredi@...

[simo-2]

On Tue, 2008-08-26 at 20:36 -0400, Alexander Wait Zaranek wrote:

> On Tue, Aug 26, 2008 at 8:15 PM, Rich Bodo <richbodo@...> wrote:
> > Hard to say, this one looks a little more telling to me:
> >
> > http://www.google.com/trends?q=centos%2C+rhel%2C+suse%2C+debian%2C+ubuntu&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0
> >
> > Looks like Ubuntu is just kicking ass and taking mind-share.  Of course,
> > there is no telling what all that web traffic means in terms of market
> > share.
> >
> http://www.google.com/trends?q=redhat%2C+novell%2C+ubuntu%2Capple%2Cmicrosoft&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0
>
> I have to agree!  I have the impression that Ubuntu is giving Apple
> and Microsoft genuine competition.  It's a little hard to believe for
> a commercial user of GNU since 1993.

Sorry but besides the woes of slashdot-type crowds I see little market
take by Ubuntu. How long before Canonical runs out of money ?

Simo.

[Federico Lucifredi-2]

Rich Bodo wrote:

>
>> Hello fsb,
>>  some of you may remember my past comment along the line of "top
>> competitor to F/OSS service vendors is internal expertise, ergo
>> companies with clueful and sufficiently large support staff may choose
>> to deploy and support F/OSS by themselves more often than those
>> without said cluefulness. Conclusion: the F/OSS support market dredges
>> for IT shops inherently less than ideal in terms of support cost for
>> the vendor (they will indeed use what they purchase, extensively - it
>> is not simple "blame insurance" - and those customers are selectively
>> expensive, as opposed to an unbiased cut of the whole spectrum).
>>
> When I was consulting with FOSS I did notice an acute cheapo-effect -
> much moreso than in the general IT consulting I did.  I recall Don Marti
> used only two axes to evaluate customers into four quadrants -
> Intelligence and Wealth.  I believe this was a result of his having
> worked in the first FOSS marketing company.  I can't prove it, but I do
> believe that relative to products that do not promote FOSS,
> FOSS-promoting products skew customers to the Intelligent and
> Extremely-Cheapo corner of the chart.

interesting. Got a pointer to Don's analysis? I could not find it in my
search.

>>  We already discussed that in the past, including appropriate
>> counterpoints to the effect that consulting is for the less clueful,
>> by definition
>> (http://www.crynwr.com/cgi-bin/ezmlm-cgi?mss:11819:200612:cafocagihfkdchgnagon),
>> and we should not expect an unbiased sampling in the first place -
>> blame insurance should not be the primary scenario.
>>
>>  However, a nice trend chart (
>> http://www.google.com/trends?q=centos%2C+rhel%2C+sles&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0 
>> ) would seem to show that indeed, self-support is growing faster than
>> direct traditional support - what does that mean? Not sure, but seems
>> still worth thinking about.
>>
> Hard to say, this one looks a little more telling to me:
>
> http://www.google.com/trends?q=centos%2C+rhel%2C+suse%2C+debian%2C+ubuntu&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0 
>
>
> Looks like Ubuntu is just kicking ass and taking mind-share.  Of course,
> there is no telling what all that web traffic means in terms of market
> share.
>
> -Rich

Best -F


--
_________________________________________
-- "'Problem' is a bleak word for challenge" - Richard Fish
(Federico L. Lucifredi) - flucifredi@...

[richbodo]

Federico Lucifredi wrote:

> Rich Bodo wrote:
>>
>>> Hello fsb,
>>>  some of you may remember my past comment along the line of "top
>>> competitor to F/OSS service vendors is internal expertise, ergo
>>> companies with clueful and sufficiently large support staff may
>>> choose to deploy and support F/OSS by themselves more often than
>>> those without said cluefulness. Conclusion: the F/OSS support market
>>> dredges for IT shops inherently less than ideal in terms of support
>>> cost for the vendor (they will indeed use what they purchase,
>>> extensively - it is not simple "blame insurance" - and those
>>> customers are selectively expensive, as opposed to an unbiased cut
>>> of the whole spectrum).
>>>
>> When I was consulting with FOSS I did notice an acute cheapo-effect -
>> much moreso than in the general IT consulting I did.  I recall Don
>> Marti used only two axes to evaluate customers into four quadrants -
>> Intelligence and Wealth.  I believe this was a result of his having
>> worked in the first FOSS marketing company.  I can't prove it, but I
>> do believe that relative to products that do not promote FOSS,
>> FOSS-promoting products skew customers to the Intelligent and
>> Extremely-Cheapo corner of the chart.
>
> interesting. Got a pointer to Don's analysis? I could not find it in
> my search.
>

Last I saw it was on a napkin at Dana Street roasting company.  I
believe it was used to wipe off a few crumbs from a spinach quiche.  But
you have easy access to Don on this list.  Take him out for coffee and
quiche and he'll re-draw it for ya!

-Rich

>
>>>  We already discussed that in the past, including appropriate
>>> counterpoints to the effect that consulting is for the less clueful,
>>> by definition
>>> (http://www.crynwr.com/cgi-bin/ezmlm-cgi?mss:11819:200612:cafocagihfkdchgnagon),
>>> and we should not expect an unbiased sampling in the first place -
>>> blame insurance should not be the primary scenario.
>>>
>>>  However, a nice trend chart (
>>> http://www.google.com/trends?q=centos%2C+rhel%2C+sles&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0 
>>> ) would seem to show that indeed, self-support is growing faster
>>> than direct traditional support - what does that mean? Not sure, but
>>> seems still worth thinking about.
>>>
>> Hard to say, this one looks a little more telling to me:
>>
>> http://www.google.com/trends?q=centos%2C+rhel%2C+suse%2C+debian%2C+ubuntu&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0 
>>
>>
>> Looks like Ubuntu is just kicking ass and taking mind-share.  Of
>> course, there is no telling what all that web traffic means in terms
>> of market share.
>>
>> -Rich
>
> Best -F
>
>

[Santiago Gala-2]

El mié, 27-08-2008 a las 01:00 +0000, simo escribió:

> On Tue, 2008-08-26 at 20:36 -0400, Alexander Wait Zaranek wrote:
> > On Tue, Aug 26, 2008 at 8:15 PM, Rich Bodo <richbodo@...> wrote:
> > > Hard to say, this one looks a little more telling to me:
> > >
> > > http://www.google.com/trends?q=centos%2C+rhel%2C+suse%2C+debian%2C+ubuntu&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0
> > >
> > > Looks like Ubuntu is just kicking ass and taking mind-share.  Of course,
> > > there is no telling what all that web traffic means in terms of market
> > > share.
> > >
> > http://www.google.com/trends?q=redhat%2C+novell%2C+ubuntu%2Capple%2Cmicrosoft&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0
> >
> > I have to agree!  I have the impression that Ubuntu is giving Apple
> > and Microsoft genuine competition.  It's a little hard to believe for
> > a commercial user of GNU since 1993.
>
> Sorry but besides the woes of slashdot-type crowds I see little market
> take by Ubuntu. How long before Canonical runs out of money ?
>

Notice that here (Spain) I have seen a number of non-computer savvy
people migrating from Vista to Ubuntu (always ubuntu, empirical result)
because they didn't want to install cracked software, they can't afford
MS Office, and they were fed up with the problems of viruses and
upgrades in Vista. This is mostly people which really uses the computer
only to browse and/or office tasks.

I've also seen "in the wild" a person (Philologist) that has Open Office
installed under Vista Home and is thinking seriously about "installing
linux instead of Vista", as she was again fed up with it. I'm quite sure
that offering help to install would be all that is needed for a
migration to start. All software she uses is:
- camera download
- basic office suite (Open Office)
- browser (she installed opera because MSIE broke with upgrades, has
firefox too)
- webmail for email
- skype
- MSN (she can work with pidgin or a similar one, no problem with less
fancies)

This was an interesting case for me, as she is not savvy neither has any
close friend that is, except casual acquaintances. So "brownian
motion" (cumulative impact of lots of small support hints, emails, IM
chats, ...) seems to drive people closer to free software and away from
microsoft nowadays.

Not sure how is ubuntu going to crack the big monopoly of initial
installs, though, but in this scenario some laws (in some European
countries, for instance) forcing to mark up separately the price of the
hardware and OS could make Ubuntu grow *very* fast.

Regards
Santiago

> Simo.
>

[Luis Villa-3]

On Tue, Aug 26, 2008 at 9:00 PM, simo <s@...> wrote:

> On Tue, 2008-08-26 at 20:36 -0400, Alexander Wait Zaranek wrote:
>> On Tue, Aug 26, 2008 at 8:15 PM, Rich Bodo <richbodo@...> wrote:
>> > Hard to say, this one looks a little more telling to me:
>> >
>> > http://www.google.com/trends?q=centos%2C+rhel%2C+suse%2C+debian%2C+ubuntu&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0
>> >
>> > Looks like Ubuntu is just kicking ass and taking mind-share.  Of course,
>> > there is no telling what all that web traffic means in terms of market
>> > share.
>> >
>> http://www.google.com/trends?q=redhat%2C+novell%2C+ubuntu%2Capple%2Cmicrosoft&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0
>>
>> I have to agree!  I have the impression that Ubuntu is giving Apple
>> and Microsoft genuine competition.  It's a little hard to believe for
>> a commercial user of GNU since 1993.
>
> Sorry but besides the woes of slashdot-type crowds I see little market
> take by Ubuntu. How long before Canonical runs out of money ?

Sorry, but besides the woes of slashdot-type crowds I see little
market take by Red Hat. How long before Red Hat runs out of money?

--Sun, c. 1998

[Astounded that the average RH perspective on Ubuntu *still* looks a
lot like this: http://wondermark.com/d/437.html Yes, their model is
flawed, but they have *huge* uptake and a very, very strong user
experience.]

[simo-2]

On Wed, 2008-08-27 at 13:00 -0400, Luis Villa wrote:

> On Tue, Aug 26, 2008 at 9:00 PM, simo <s@...> wrote:
> > On Tue, 2008-08-26 at 20:36 -0400, Alexander Wait Zaranek wrote:
> >> On Tue, Aug 26, 2008 at 8:15 PM, Rich Bodo <richbodo@...> wrote:
> >> > Hard to say, this one looks a little more telling to me:
> >> >
> >> > http://www.google.com/trends?q=centos%2C+rhel%2C+suse%2C+debian%2C+ubuntu&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0
> >> >
> >> > Looks like Ubuntu is just kicking ass and taking mind-share.  Of course,
> >> > there is no telling what all that web traffic means in terms of market
> >> > share.
> >> >
> >> http://www.google.com/trends?q=redhat%2C+novell%2C+ubuntu%2Capple%2Cmicrosoft&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0
> >>
> >> I have to agree!  I have the impression that Ubuntu is giving Apple
> >> and Microsoft genuine competition.  It's a little hard to believe for
> >> a commercial user of GNU since 1993.
> >
> > Sorry but besides the woes of slashdot-type crowds I see little market
> > take by Ubuntu. How long before Canonical runs out of money ?
>
> Sorry, but besides the woes of slashdot-type crowds I see little
> market take by Red Hat. How long before Red Hat runs out of money?
>
> --Sun, c. 1998
>
> [Astounded that the average RH perspective on Ubuntu *still* looks a
> lot like this: http://wondermark.com/d/437.html Yes, their model is
> flawed, but they have *huge* uptake and a very, very strong user
> experience.]

I recognize the potential, but after a few years it still is just a
potential. I would love to see a distribution get market share in the
desktop area, but without a sustainable business model it won't happen.

I am sure in the long run one distribution or another will find a way,
simply because people really want to have Linux on their PCs today (yes
I too have met more and more non-technical people that use Linux) and
hardware vendors are starting experimenting with it (see the eeepc for
example).

So my question should have been better framed as: do we have some
evidence that Canonical have found a viable business model and can move
forward ?
It is critical to asses whether Ubuntu will actually be the Microsoft
and Apple competitor and not just the fashion of the moment.

Simo.

[David Welton-2]

Hi guys,

> Not sure how is ubuntu going to crack the big monopoly of initial
> installs, though, but in this scenario some laws (in some European
> countries, for instance) forcing to mark up separately the price of the
> hardware and OS could make Ubuntu grow *very* fast.

I created a site, for fun, that lists stores where people can buy
computers in Italy with either no OS, or, better, with Linux:

http://www.linuxsi.com

It seems to be fairly popular, even though it's a side project and not
something I've invested a bunch of time in.   If anyone's interested,
I would be interested in making it work for a wider variety of
countries and languages...

Simo (ciao!) says:

> So my question should have been better framed as: do we have some evidence that Canonical have found a viable business model and can move
forward ? It is critical to asses whether Ubuntu will actually be the
Microsoft and Apple competitor and not just the fashion of the moment.

At an abstract level, "business model == scarcity".  Something that's
given away for free and easily copied is by definition not scarce, so
you have no business model if your business is simply about creating
that product, which is what this list has danced around and around
since its inception.  Ways you can introduce scarcity into the
equation include:

* Your own time as an open source expert.

* The library trick with GPL/commercial licensed libraries.

and so on and so forth... lots are listed here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_models_for_open_source_software

I wonder which might be the most appropriate for the folks at Canonical?

--
David N. Welton

http://www.welton.it/davidw/

http://www.dedasys.com/

[Lawrence Rosen]

I'm enjoying this thread.

Santiago Gala wrote:
> I've also seen "in the wild" a person (Philologist) that has Open Office
> installed under Vista Home and is thinking seriously about "installing
> linux instead of Vista", as she was again fed up with it.
<snip>
> This was an interesting case for me, as she is not savvy neither has any
> close friend that is, except casual acquaintances. So "brownian
> motion" (cumulative impact of lots of small support hints, emails, IM
> chats, ...) seems to drive people closer to free software and away from
> microsoft nowadays.

"Brownian motion" is an interesting, albeit flawed, analogy. If you place a
drop of ink into a large glass of water, eventually Brownian motion will
spread the color throughout. But there would still be only a small drop of
ink molecules in that vast reservoir of water. That's not what we're seeing
as FOSS captures market share.

FOSS is succeeding in the hundreds of thousands and millions of downloads of
applications that solve problems in cost-competitive ways. Small-scale
droplets of open source software in the hands of philologists (or even the
hands of much more numerous lawyers) don't give us the FOSS growth-rates we
need and are seeing.

/Larry

> -----Original Message-----
> From: Santiago Gala [mailto:sgala@...]
> Sent: Wednesday, August 27, 2008 9:44 AM
> To: simo
> Cc: Alexander Wait Zaranek; fsb@...
> Subject: Re: Competition by internal expertise for F/OSS vendors
>
> El mié, 27-08-2008 a las 01:00 +0000, simo escribió:
> > On Tue, 2008-08-26 at 20:36 -0400, Alexander Wait Zaranek wrote:
> > > On Tue, Aug 26, 2008 at 8:15 PM, Rich Bodo <richbodo@...> wrote:
> > > > Hard to say, this one looks a little more telling to me:
> > > >
> > > >
> http://www.google.com/trends?q=centos%2C+rhel%2C+suse%2C+debian%2C+ubuntu&
> ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0
> > > >
> > > > Looks like Ubuntu is just kicking ass and taking mind-share.  Of
> course,
> > > > there is no telling what all that web traffic means in terms of
> market
> > > > share.
> > > >
> > >
> http://www.google.com/trends?q=redhat%2C+novell%2C+ubuntu%2Capple%2Cmicros
> oft&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0
> > >
> > > I have to agree!  I have the impression that Ubuntu is giving Apple
> > > and Microsoft genuine competition.  It's a little hard to believe for
> > > a commercial user of GNU since 1993.
> >
> > Sorry but besides the woes of slashdot-type crowds I see little market
> > take by Ubuntu. How long before Canonical runs out of money ?
> >
>
> Notice that here (Spain) I have seen a number of non-computer savvy
> people migrating from Vista to Ubuntu (always ubuntu, empirical result)
> because they didn't want to install cracked software, they can't afford
> MS Office, and they were fed up with the problems of viruses and
> upgrades in Vista. This is mostly people which really uses the computer
> only to browse and/or office tasks.
>
> I've also seen "in the wild" a person (Philologist) that has Open Office
> installed under Vista Home and is thinking seriously about "installing
> linux instead of Vista", as she was again fed up with it. I'm quite sure
> that offering help to install would be all that is needed for a
> migration to start. All software she uses is:
> - camera download
> - basic office suite (Open Office)
> - browser (she installed opera because MSIE broke with upgrades, has
> firefox too)
> - webmail for email
> - skype
> - MSN (she can work with pidgin or a similar one, no problem with less
> fancies)
>
> This was an interesting case for me, as she is not savvy neither has any
> close friend that is, except casual acquaintances. So "brownian
> motion" (cumulative impact of lots of small support hints, emails, IM
> chats, ...) seems to drive people closer to free software and away from
> microsoft nowadays.
>
> Not sure how is ubuntu going to crack the big monopoly of initial
> installs, though, but in this scenario some laws (in some European
> countries, for instance) forcing to mark up separately the price of the
> hardware and OS could make Ubuntu grow *very* fast.
>
> Regards
> Santiago
>
> > Simo.
> >

[richbodo]

>  Small-scale
> droplets of open source software in the hands of philologists (or even the
> hands of much more numerous lawyers) don't give us the FOSS growth-rates we
> need and are seeing.
>  
There is a case to be made that those droplets do form a wave, or that a
massive user-base grows a long-tail of contribution that wags the dog.  
The emerging markets that are shown searching for information on Ubuntu
via Google are going to create content for the Ubuntu project.  The bulk
of the contributions will be in the form of questions and suggestions -
small bits of documentation that kick off the creation of better content
and encourage others to join the party.  If you believe that
demographics of growth in world computer and internet usage are going to
favor FOSS heavily, then the future for FOSS looks very bright indeed.

I agree that we are seeing the type of adoption that many on this list
had hoped for 10 years ago.  Maybe it's time for a retrospective
discussion?  Not that folks on this list have ever had any sort of
unified goal, but we had frequently mentioned milestones of sorts for
FOSS.   Most of them will never be officially measured, but might be
interesting to discuss.

Some areas where we are close to achieving significant milestones, and
my wild-ass-guesses as to the status:

1) Functionality: We are clearly closer to the availability of a drop in
FOSS replacement for Windows for a majority of users - probably there
for the majority already.

2) Overall Business Value: If you are not Microsoft, you would estimate
that the FOSS established base would already be much more difficult to
replace than Windows (an argument aided by pricing structures ;) ).

3) Penetration into the Business Models of Successful Businesses: I
haven't run into a large business that doesn't contribute to FOSS in a
long while, and I haven't read an issue of HBR in months that doesn't
discuss the trade-offs of FOSS.  A business that writes software and
does not contribute to FOSS will soon be the exception, rather than the
rule.

4) Conceptual Validation and Virality: I'm not going to touch this one
right now.

-Rich

[Stephen J. Turnbull]

Larry Rosen writes:

 > > Small-scale droplets of open source software in the hands of
 > > philologists (or even the hands of much more numerous lawyers)
 > > don't give us the FOSS growth-rates we need and are seeing.

I have to agree.  My feeling from looking at what people in my LUG etc
are doing is that FOSS has reached the point where one can do what
used to be called "systems integration" purely in software, and
because of that people are using cheap, reliable FOSS components where
they can.

Rich Bodo writes:

 > There is a case to be made that those droplets do form a wave,

Not really.  It's possible, but if it's true, what are we doing here?
The droplets will coalesce, or not, no matter what we do.

If FSB has a purpose (and I believe it does) it needs to identify
business-sized pools of users who have similar reasons to adopt FOSS.

 > or that a massive user-base grows a long-tail of contribution that
 > wags the dog.  The emerging markets that are shown searching for
 > information on Ubuntu via Google are going to create content for
 > the Ubuntu project.  The bulk of the contributions will be in the
 > form of questions and suggestions - small bits of documentation
 > that kick off the creation of better content and encourage others
 > to join the party.  If you believe that demographics of growth in
 > world computer and internet usage are going to favor FOSS heavily,
 > then the future for FOSS looks very bright indeed.

Not a certainty.  I think it's pretty likely that the next generation
of phones (the ones that come with the mind-killer of TV) are going to
kill personal computers as we know them pretty much dead.  You take
your phone home, you put it into its cradle, it provides the brains
and connectivity that drive the keyboard and TV^H^Hmonitor on the
desk.  In this scenario, non-technical people are going to prefer the
canned sites and simple browsing interfaces to monster apps like
Mozilla.

So, in terms of contributions from individual users, we may be seeing
the zenith of the free software movement right now.  That doesn't mean
that we won't see phones running Ubuntu, but after the absolute
disaster that Sharp turned the Zaurus into, I don't expect that these
computers "for the rest of them" will end up being platforms for
content creation, let alone app development.

[richbodo]

>  I think it's pretty likely that the next generation
> of phones (the ones that come with the mind-killer of TV) are going to
> kill personal computers as we know them pretty much dead.
Why will that happen?

Not because computing power is no longer compelling: History tells us
that compelling new applications lead to markets for specialized
hardware, which will always be replaced by general purpose hardware as
power increases.  As mind-blowing as the next specialized piece of
hardware is, the next piece of gp hardware is just as compelling.

The argument must be that compute-intensive applications are shifting to
remote server farms.  I would certainly agree with that trend, but I
don't see that changing PCs much in this generation.  In another 10
years maybe - just enough time to build a strong FOSS installed base and
community on mobile devices. The glass is half full yet!  ;)

[simo-2]

On Thu, 2008-08-28 at 08:03 -0700, Rich Bodo wrote:

> >  I think it's pretty likely that the next generation
> > of phones (the ones that come with the mind-killer of TV) are going to
> > kill personal computers as we know them pretty much dead.
> Why will that happen?
>
> Not because computing power is no longer compelling: History tells us
> that compelling new applications lead to markets for specialized
> hardware, which will always be replaced by general purpose hardware as
> power increases.  As mind-blowing as the next specialized piece of
> hardware is, the next piece of gp hardware is just as compelling.
>
> The argument must be that compute-intensive applications are shifting to
> remote server farms.  I would certainly agree with that trend, but I
> don't see that changing PCs much in this generation.  In another 10
> years maybe - just enough time to build a strong FOSS installed base and
> community on mobile devices. The glass is half full yet!  ;)

I think you underestimate the power of neater graphics (which require a
lot of *local* computing power) in consumer products. Especially if we
are going to see true 3D work environments at some point.

Simo.

[Thomas Lord]

Rich Bodo wrote:
>
>>  I think it's pretty likely that the next generation
>> of phones (the ones that come with the mind-killer of TV) are going to
>> kill personal computers as we know them pretty much dead.
> Why will that happen?


Because fairly soon it will become viable to sell general
purpose computers that exclusively run (under ordinary
modes of operation) javascript, xquery, xslt, a browser-like
thing, and NOT MUCH MORE.   There's a good chance that
very high quality examples of this de facto new platform will
emerge.    The "NIC machine" (remember that?) was ahead of
its time.

That changes the game for hardware / "gadget" designers.
Making and supporting and selling a personal "brick" computer
that runs linux?  or Windows XP?  or some Vista foo?  That's
hard!

But a standard brick that just does XML and Javascript with
nice graphics and can connect to the net?   These new
personal lisp machines will be very popular and not so very
hard to build.


-t

[Don Marti]

begin Rich Bodo quotation of Tue, Aug 26, 2008 at 06:52:28PM -0700:

>> interesting. Got a pointer to Don's analysis? I could not find it in  
>> my search.
>>
> Last I saw it was on a napkin at Dana Street roasting company.  I  
> believe it was used to wipe off a few crumbs from a spinach quiche.  But  
> you have easy access to Don on this list.  Take him out for coffee and  
> quiche and he'll re-draw it for ya!

I don't think I ever had the quiche there...maybe
a muffin or a croissant?  Anyway the chart is just
something that Jim Gleason and I came up with to
help put priorities on consulting clients to go
after -- is this client a revenue source, a learning
opportunity, or both?  

--
Don Marti                                               [phone] mobile
http://zgp.org/~dmarti/
dmarti@...         Linux device driver unconference: http://freedomhec.org/ 

[Don Marti]

begin simo quotation of Wed, Aug 27, 2008 at 05:13:28PM +0000:

> So my question should have been better framed as: do we have some
> evidence that Canonical have found a viable business model and can move
> forward ?
> It is critical to asses whether Ubuntu will actually be the Microsoft
> and Apple competitor and not just the fashion of the moment.

For now, the strongest business model for desktop
Linux is: throw money and attention at Linux, get
way more back in concessions from MSFT.
  http://www.linuxworld.com/community/?q=node/23489
($3 Windows in emerging markets, the return of Windows
XP, and who knows what else behind the scenes.)

Economics Prof. Mark J. Perry points out --
http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2008/07/for-some-products-theres-been-major.html
-- computer prices are down 90% in the last 10 years,
but software is down only 47%.  And that's the one
part in a Dell or HP system that the manufacturer
doesn't have a strong second source for.

The problem with matching system vendors and projects
is free riders.  It might be interesting for Canonical
or RHT to try one of the proposed feature futures
protocols:
  http://www.linuxworld.com/community/?q=node/2749

--
Don Marti                                               [phone] mobile
http://zgp.org/~dmarti/
dmarti@...         Linux device driver unconference: http://freedomhec.org/ 

[Stephen J. Turnbull]

Rich Bodo writes:

 > >  I think it's pretty likely that the next generation
 > > of phones (the ones that come with the mind-killer of TV) are
 > > going to kill personal computers as we know them pretty much
 > > dead.

 > Why will that happen?

It will happen because the number of people who actually want personal
*computers* rather than "interactive TV" is quite small.  The shift of
demand out of PCs to "interactive portable TV" will drive up the price
of PCs, etc.  See Tom Lord's post.

 > Not because computing power is no longer compelling: History tells us
 > that compelling new applications lead to markets for specialized
 > hardware, which will always be replaced by general purpose hardware as
 > power increases.

Smart phones *are* general purpose hardware; they just are painful to
use as such.  People who are *paid* to develop for them will use
cross-compilers and the like, but can you imagine putting together a
150KB .emacs using a phone interface?  Casual hacking will be
discouraged.

 > The argument must be that compute-intensive applications are
 > shifting to remote server farms.

Nope.  Although the analogy to what has happened to the American farm
over the last century (compressed into a decade by Internet time)
gives me pause.