« Return to Thread: [TECH]:: The sun has gone out - still
Re: [TECH]:: The sun has gone out - still
by Chris Smolinski
::
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>Hi!
>
>> I still wonder about your conspiracy suspicions. To me it seems
>> exceptionally unlikely that worldwide al the solar "experts" are conspiring
>> together to keep the rest of us in the dark about upcoming disaster..
>
>Asking about the sunspots to a solar astrophysics (where I work), he
>told me that the spots has about 6 months of delay for what is
>predicted (based only on the past cycles, as each one is completely
>different in the details from each other). Usually the start of them
>has a big slope, which does not happens yet with this expected new
>one.
>
>He said there are currently two theories:
>
> a) We are moving towards a minimum, like Maunder's one.
> b) The next cycle will start, as usual, but its maximum will be THE
>maximum so far.
>
>> I still wonder about your conspiracy suspicions. To me it seems
>> exceptionally unlikely that worldwide al the solar "experts" are conspiring
>> together to keep the rest of us in the dark about upcoming disaster..
>
>Asking about the sunspots to a solar astrophysics (where I work), he
>told me that the spots has about 6 months of delay for what is
>predicted (based only on the past cycles, as each one is completely
>different in the details from each other). Usually the start of them
>has a big slope, which does not happens yet with this expected new
>one.
>
>He said there are currently two theories:
>
> a) We are moving towards a minimum, like Maunder's one.
> b) The next cycle will start, as usual, but its maximum will be THE
>maximum so far.
As an amateur radio operator, we're often talking about solar
activity, or more often lately, complaining about the *lack* of solar
activity. I've been into radio since 1978, so I've been through a
few solar cycles. I regularly check the various predictions of the
upcoming cycle, and while they are being modified, I'm not sure how
much of that is nefarious, and how much is just the usual "hmm,
things seem to be running behind, let's push things back again".
Many of the sunspots being detected are still old Cycle 23 polarity.
I regularly visit http://www.spaceweather.com/ where I am greeted
with a picture of a blank sun, and a mention that the holographic
image from the back of the sun also shows no sunspots.
From my purely amateur (no pun intended) perspective, professionals
don't have all that much data to work with (23 solar cycles, many of
which occurred during a period of "low" activity, plus whatever data
they can glean from tree rings and whatever else). There's lots of
theories about how solar cycles work, most of which seem to be "we
have no idea how this works, but it kinda/sorta fits the data". If
there are long term (several hundred year) cycles involved, we don't
have the data to detect them.
--
---
Chris Smolinski
Black Cat Systems
http://www.blackcatsystems.com
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