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Re: Chennai monorail controversy
by Eric Bruun
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Walter:
Why single out monorail and LRT for the accusation about using theoretical capacity? Boosters of
any mode can do this trick.
Also, we should keep in mind that sometimes that theoretical capacities really are do-able. The Central Line in London, for example, reliably runs 9-car trains at 95 second headways. (Actually, the vehicles per hour are do-able, the people capacity per hour depends on crowding assumptions, which vary. Japan and South America might tolerate 6 persons per square meter, North America and Europe only 4 persons.)
Eric Bruun
-----Original Message-----
>From: Walter Hook <whook@...>
>Sent: Feb 7, 2006 11:40 AM
>To: 'Asia and the Pacific sustainable transport' <sustran-discuss@...>, karl@...
>Subject: [sustran] Re: Chennai monorail controversy
>
>Leaving aside the issues of cost and getting to and from a monorail, and
>the difficulty of network development, I believe I've isolated the
>fallacy that leads monorail and light rail producers to wildly
>exaggerated claims about the capacity of such systems. They calculate
>the theoretical capacity of these systems based on the number of people
>that these trains can carry, times the number of trains per hour that
>the signaling system can handle, and simply multiply. This will usually
>give you an impressive number, and it seems very logical.
>
>The trouble is that at high volumes even in the best of systems there is
>a fair amount of pushing and shoving to get in and out of the doors, so
>at any station with high volumes of boarding and alighting, the stop
>time tends to quickly move beyond allocated 10 seconds allocated. In
>two minute headways it does not take long before the train behind is
>stuck waiting and a queue forms. Hence, as with BRT the bottleneck is
>the station stop. However, because these systems don't exist in
>developing countries where demand is anywhere near high enough for this
>problem to manifest itself, the capacity calculation mistakenly assumes
>the bottleneck is the size of the vehicle and the lead time headway.
>
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: sustran-discuss-bounces+whook=itdp.org@...
>[mailto:sustran-discuss-bounces+whook=itdp.org@...] On
>Behalf Of Lee Schipper
>Sent: Tuesday, February 07, 2006 10:26 AM
>To: karl@...; sustran-discuss@...
>Subject: [sustran] Re: Chennai monorail controversy
>
>I was thinking more generally of large over or underground systems (the
>Bangkok Metro you illustrated in 2004 !). I did'nt even know about K..
>thanks for the clarifications.
>
>>>> karl@... 2/7/2006 9:59:38 AM >>>
>Lee, Bangkok doesn't have a monorail, maybe you were thinking of Kuala
>Lumpur. I don't know if this KL system has any adherents (have never
>heard
>of one), but after opening in August 2003 to a stated - by the then PM
>-
>forecast of 80,000 daily passengers by the end of 2003, possibly by the
>end
>of 2005 they had achieved half this number. I tend to agree with Eric &
>Eric
>that it seems there are so many monorail fiascos around that you can't
>really just put it down to people's differing perceptions.
>Bangkok Skytrain (an elevated heavy rail, not a monorail) is a
>different
>story. Although financially it's been a failure, overall it's had many
>positive benefits for the city.
>Karl Fjellstrom
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: sustran-discuss-bounces+karl=dnet.net.id@...
>[mailto:sustran-discuss-bounces+karl=dnet.net.id@...] On
>Behalf
>Of Lee Schipper
>Sent: Tuesday, 7 February 2006 10:45 AM
>To: ericbruun@...; sustran-discuss@...
>Cc: preston@...
>Subject: [sustran] Re: Chennai monorail controversy
>
>But one need only look to Bangkok to see the same problem...and the
>Seattle
>Monorail, like Bangkok, or the Metro in Lima, has many adherents.
>Something
>is not convincing to certain people!
>
>>>> Eric Bruun <ericbruun@...> 2/6/2006 9:26:27 PM >>>
>
>I would suggest that concerned individuals have a look at the Seattle
>Monorail fiasco.
>It shouldn't be hard to follow if one goes to the Seattle
>Post-Intelligencer
>and Seatte Times
>websites and does an archival search.
>
>Eric Bruun
>
>
>-----Original Message-----
>>From: John Ernst <itdpasia@...>
>>Sent: Feb 6, 2006 1:11 PM
>>To: Asia and the Pacific sustainable transport
><sustran-discuss@...>
>>Subject: [sustran] Re: Chennai monorail controversy
>>
>>The experience in Chennai appears to be
>>increasingly common in the larger Asian
>>cities. Following some initial work by ITDP,
>>Hyderabad was considering a BRT system, but
>>monorail and rail companies quickly came in with enticing proposals.
>>
>>Typically, these companies overestimate demand
>>and promise a totally self-sustaining system
>>running with only private investment. Though
>>untrue, the promise is still appealing to governments.
>>
>>After one false start, Jakarta had a privately
>>financed monorail start construction. But the
>>company soon came to the government asking for a
>>subsidy, then stopped construction. The governor
>>set a deadline of 6 days ago for the company to
>>get started again or he would look for yet another set of
>investors...
>>
>>It seems monorail is an easy dream to sell, a hard one to fulfill.
>>
>>Best,
>>John
>>
>>At 12:18 AM 2/6/2006, Paul Barter wrote:
>>>content-class: urn:content-classes:message
>>>Content-Type: multipart/alternative;
>>> boundary="----_=_NextPart_001_01C62AED.77CA1878"
>>>
>>>Some of you may be interested to know that
>>>Chennai (formerly Madras) in India is in the
>>>midst of a heated controversy over public transport.
>>>
>>>The Tamil Nadu state government decision to opt
>>>for a huge monorail network is the issue.
>>>See
>>><http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ned=us&q=chennai+monorail&btnG=Sear
>ch+N
>
>ews>http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ned=us&q=chennai+btnG=Search+News
>
>>>for the latest.
>>>
>>>Both 'Metro' supporters and BRT supporters seem
>>>to be weighing in (with the heavy rail
>>>supporters louder and more influential it seems).
>>>
>>><http://www.hindu.com/2006/02/03/stories/2006020315440700.htm>http://w
>ww.h
>
>indu.com/2006/02/03/stories/2006020315440700.htm
>>>(Monorail plan ill-advised: Sreedharan)
>>>"The Tamil Nadu Government's decision to go for
>>>monorail for Chennai city to meet its growing
>>>traffic needs is most `unfortunate' as it will
>>>not help meet the transport requirement of city
>>>commuters," says Delhi Metro Rail Corporation managing director E.
>Sreedharan.
>>>
>>>Already the State had burnt its fingers with the
>>>"ill-advised" mass rapid transit system (MRTS)
>>>and the monorail would be its another
>>>"ill-advised venture," he said in a letter to the State Government.
>>>
>>>The State, which had asked the DMRC to submit a
>>>comprehensive report for a rail based metro
>>>system for Chennai, dashed off a letter to the
>>>Corporation recently asking it to stop all its investigations and
>surveys.
>>>
>>>Expressing surprise over the decision, Mr.
>>>Sreedharan suspected that the State had been
>>>"influenced by monorail lobby with its tall
>>>claims and false promises." The lobby, the
>>>letter noted, had already stalled the metro project in Bangalore. *
>>>
>>>or
>>><http://www.hindu.com/2006/01/29/stories/2006012901640500.htm>http://w
>ww.h
>
>indu.com/2006/01/29/stories/2006012901640500.htm
>>>(Divergent views emerge on utility of monorail project)
>>>
>>>Any comments?
>>>
>>>Paul
>>>
>>>Paul A. Barter | Assistant Professor | LKY
>>>School of Public Policy | National University
>>>of Singapore | 29 Heng Mui Keng
>>>Terrace | Singapore 119620 | Tel:
>>>ᄍ-6516 3324 | Fax: ᄍ-6778
>>>1020 | Email: paulbarter@... |
>>><http://www.spp.nus.edu.sg/faculty/paulbarter/>http://www.spp.nus.edu.
>sg/f
>
>aculty/paulbarter/
>>>
>>>
>>>I am speaking for myself, not for my employers.
>>>Are you interested in urban transport in
>>>developing countries? Then try
>>><http://urbantransportasia.blogspot.com/>http://urbantransportasia.blo
>gspo
>
>t.com/
>>>
>>>And consider joining the SUSTRAN-DISCUSS list,
>>><http://list.jca.apc.org/manage/listinfo/sustran-discuss>http://list.j
>ca.a
>
>pc.org/manage/listinfo/sustran-discuss
>>>or
><http://www.geocities.com/sustrannet/>http://www.geocities.com/sustranne
>t/
>
>>>
>>>
>>>================================================================
>>>SUSTRAN-DISCUSS is a forum devoted to discussion
>>>of people-centred, equitable and sustainable
>>>transport with a focus on developing countries
>>>(the 'Global South'). Because of the history of
>>>the list, the main focus is on urban transport policy in Asia.
>>
>>- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
>>John Ernst - Director, Asia Region
>> ITDP - The Institute for Transportation and Development Policy
>>Promoting environmentally sustainable and equitable transportation
>worldwide
>> Visit http://www.itdp.org
>>- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
>>
>>
>>
>>================================================================
>>SUSTRAN-DISCUSS is a forum devoted to discussion of people-centred,
>equitable and sustainable transport with a focus on developing
>countries
>(the 'Global South'). Because of the history of the list, the main
>focus is
>on urban transport policy in Asia.
>
>
>
>================================================================
>SUSTRAN-DISCUSS is a forum devoted to discussion of people-centred,
>equitable and sustainable transport with a focus on developing
>countries
>(the 'Global South'). Because of the history of the list, the main
>focus is
>on urban transport policy in Asia.
>
>
>================================================================
>SUSTRAN-DISCUSS is a forum devoted to discussion of people-centred,
>equitable and sustainable transport with a focus on developing
>countries
>(the 'Global South'). Because of the history of the list, the main
>focus is
>on urban transport policy in Asia.
>
>Send instant messages to your online friends
>http://au.messenger.yahoo.com
>
>
>================================================================
>SUSTRAN-DISCUSS is a forum devoted to discussion of people-centred,
>equitable and sustainable transport with a focus on developing countries
>(the 'Global South'). Because of the history of the list, the main focus
>is on urban transport policy in Asia.
>
>
>================================================================
>SUSTRAN-DISCUSS is a forum devoted to discussion of people-centred,
>equitable and sustainable transport with a focus on developing countries
>(the 'Global South'). Because of the history of the list, the main focus
>is on urban transport policy in Asia.
>
>
>
>================================================================
>SUSTRAN-DISCUSS is a forum devoted to discussion of people-centred, equitable and sustainable transport with a focus on developing countries (the 'Global South'). Because of the history of the list, the main focus is on urban transport policy in Asia.
================================================================
SUSTRAN-DISCUSS is a forum devoted to discussion of people-centred, equitable and sustainable transport with a focus on developing countries (the 'Global South'). Because of the history of the list, the main focus is on urban transport policy in Asia.
Why single out monorail and LRT for the accusation about using theoretical capacity? Boosters of
any mode can do this trick.
Also, we should keep in mind that sometimes that theoretical capacities really are do-able. The Central Line in London, for example, reliably runs 9-car trains at 95 second headways. (Actually, the vehicles per hour are do-able, the people capacity per hour depends on crowding assumptions, which vary. Japan and South America might tolerate 6 persons per square meter, North America and Europe only 4 persons.)
Eric Bruun
-----Original Message-----
>From: Walter Hook <whook@...>
>Sent: Feb 7, 2006 11:40 AM
>To: 'Asia and the Pacific sustainable transport' <sustran-discuss@...>, karl@...
>Subject: [sustran] Re: Chennai monorail controversy
>
>Leaving aside the issues of cost and getting to and from a monorail, and
>the difficulty of network development, I believe I've isolated the
>fallacy that leads monorail and light rail producers to wildly
>exaggerated claims about the capacity of such systems. They calculate
>the theoretical capacity of these systems based on the number of people
>that these trains can carry, times the number of trains per hour that
>the signaling system can handle, and simply multiply. This will usually
>give you an impressive number, and it seems very logical.
>
>The trouble is that at high volumes even in the best of systems there is
>a fair amount of pushing and shoving to get in and out of the doors, so
>at any station with high volumes of boarding and alighting, the stop
>time tends to quickly move beyond allocated 10 seconds allocated. In
>two minute headways it does not take long before the train behind is
>stuck waiting and a queue forms. Hence, as with BRT the bottleneck is
>the station stop. However, because these systems don't exist in
>developing countries where demand is anywhere near high enough for this
>problem to manifest itself, the capacity calculation mistakenly assumes
>the bottleneck is the size of the vehicle and the lead time headway.
>
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: sustran-discuss-bounces+whook=itdp.org@...
>[mailto:sustran-discuss-bounces+whook=itdp.org@...] On
>Behalf Of Lee Schipper
>Sent: Tuesday, February 07, 2006 10:26 AM
>To: karl@...; sustran-discuss@...
>Subject: [sustran] Re: Chennai monorail controversy
>
>I was thinking more generally of large over or underground systems (the
>Bangkok Metro you illustrated in 2004 !). I did'nt even know about K..
>thanks for the clarifications.
>
>>>> karl@... 2/7/2006 9:59:38 AM >>>
>Lee, Bangkok doesn't have a monorail, maybe you were thinking of Kuala
>Lumpur. I don't know if this KL system has any adherents (have never
>heard
>of one), but after opening in August 2003 to a stated - by the then PM
>-
>forecast of 80,000 daily passengers by the end of 2003, possibly by the
>end
>of 2005 they had achieved half this number. I tend to agree with Eric &
>Eric
>that it seems there are so many monorail fiascos around that you can't
>really just put it down to people's differing perceptions.
>Bangkok Skytrain (an elevated heavy rail, not a monorail) is a
>different
>story. Although financially it's been a failure, overall it's had many
>positive benefits for the city.
>Karl Fjellstrom
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: sustran-discuss-bounces+karl=dnet.net.id@...
>[mailto:sustran-discuss-bounces+karl=dnet.net.id@...] On
>Behalf
>Of Lee Schipper
>Sent: Tuesday, 7 February 2006 10:45 AM
>To: ericbruun@...; sustran-discuss@...
>Cc: preston@...
>Subject: [sustran] Re: Chennai monorail controversy
>
>But one need only look to Bangkok to see the same problem...and the
>Seattle
>Monorail, like Bangkok, or the Metro in Lima, has many adherents.
>Something
>is not convincing to certain people!
>
>>>> Eric Bruun <ericbruun@...> 2/6/2006 9:26:27 PM >>>
>
>I would suggest that concerned individuals have a look at the Seattle
>Monorail fiasco.
>It shouldn't be hard to follow if one goes to the Seattle
>Post-Intelligencer
>and Seatte Times
>websites and does an archival search.
>
>Eric Bruun
>
>
>-----Original Message-----
>>From: John Ernst <itdpasia@...>
>>Sent: Feb 6, 2006 1:11 PM
>>To: Asia and the Pacific sustainable transport
><sustran-discuss@...>
>>Subject: [sustran] Re: Chennai monorail controversy
>>
>>The experience in Chennai appears to be
>>increasingly common in the larger Asian
>>cities. Following some initial work by ITDP,
>>Hyderabad was considering a BRT system, but
>>monorail and rail companies quickly came in with enticing proposals.
>>
>>Typically, these companies overestimate demand
>>and promise a totally self-sustaining system
>>running with only private investment. Though
>>untrue, the promise is still appealing to governments.
>>
>>After one false start, Jakarta had a privately
>>financed monorail start construction. But the
>>company soon came to the government asking for a
>>subsidy, then stopped construction. The governor
>>set a deadline of 6 days ago for the company to
>>get started again or he would look for yet another set of
>investors...
>>
>>It seems monorail is an easy dream to sell, a hard one to fulfill.
>>
>>Best,
>>John
>>
>>At 12:18 AM 2/6/2006, Paul Barter wrote:
>>>content-class: urn:content-classes:message
>>>Content-Type: multipart/alternative;
>>> boundary="----_=_NextPart_001_01C62AED.77CA1878"
>>>
>>>Some of you may be interested to know that
>>>Chennai (formerly Madras) in India is in the
>>>midst of a heated controversy over public transport.
>>>
>>>The Tamil Nadu state government decision to opt
>>>for a huge monorail network is the issue.
>>>See
>>><http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ned=us&q=chennai+monorail&btnG=Sear
>ch+N
>
>ews>http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ned=us&q=chennai+btnG=Search+News
>
>>>for the latest.
>>>
>>>Both 'Metro' supporters and BRT supporters seem
>>>to be weighing in (with the heavy rail
>>>supporters louder and more influential it seems).
>>>
>>><http://www.hindu.com/2006/02/03/stories/2006020315440700.htm>http://w
>ww.h
>
>indu.com/2006/02/03/stories/2006020315440700.htm
>>>(Monorail plan ill-advised: Sreedharan)
>>>"The Tamil Nadu Government's decision to go for
>>>monorail for Chennai city to meet its growing
>>>traffic needs is most `unfortunate' as it will
>>>not help meet the transport requirement of city
>>>commuters," says Delhi Metro Rail Corporation managing director E.
>Sreedharan.
>>>
>>>Already the State had burnt its fingers with the
>>>"ill-advised" mass rapid transit system (MRTS)
>>>and the monorail would be its another
>>>"ill-advised venture," he said in a letter to the State Government.
>>>
>>>The State, which had asked the DMRC to submit a
>>>comprehensive report for a rail based metro
>>>system for Chennai, dashed off a letter to the
>>>Corporation recently asking it to stop all its investigations and
>surveys.
>>>
>>>Expressing surprise over the decision, Mr.
>>>Sreedharan suspected that the State had been
>>>"influenced by monorail lobby with its tall
>>>claims and false promises." The lobby, the
>>>letter noted, had already stalled the metro project in Bangalore. *
>>>
>>>or
>>><http://www.hindu.com/2006/01/29/stories/2006012901640500.htm>http://w
>ww.h
>
>indu.com/2006/01/29/stories/2006012901640500.htm
>>>(Divergent views emerge on utility of monorail project)
>>>
>>>Any comments?
>>>
>>>Paul
>>>
>>>Paul A. Barter | Assistant Professor | LKY
>>>School of Public Policy | National University
>>>of Singapore | 29 Heng Mui Keng
>>>Terrace | Singapore 119620 | Tel:
>>>ᄍ-6516 3324 | Fax: ᄍ-6778
>>>1020 | Email: paulbarter@... |
>>><http://www.spp.nus.edu.sg/faculty/paulbarter/>http://www.spp.nus.edu.
>sg/f
>
>aculty/paulbarter/
>>>
>>>
>>>I am speaking for myself, not for my employers.
>>>Are you interested in urban transport in
>>>developing countries? Then try
>>><http://urbantransportasia.blogspot.com/>http://urbantransportasia.blo
>gspo
>
>t.com/
>>>
>>>And consider joining the SUSTRAN-DISCUSS list,
>>><http://list.jca.apc.org/manage/listinfo/sustran-discuss>http://list.j
>ca.a
>
>pc.org/manage/listinfo/sustran-discuss
>>>or
><http://www.geocities.com/sustrannet/>http://www.geocities.com/sustranne
>t/
>
>>>
>>>
>>>================================================================
>>>SUSTRAN-DISCUSS is a forum devoted to discussion
>>>of people-centred, equitable and sustainable
>>>transport with a focus on developing countries
>>>(the 'Global South'). Because of the history of
>>>the list, the main focus is on urban transport policy in Asia.
>>
>>- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
>>John Ernst - Director, Asia Region
>> ITDP - The Institute for Transportation and Development Policy
>>Promoting environmentally sustainable and equitable transportation
>worldwide
>> Visit http://www.itdp.org
>>- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
>>
>>
>>
>>================================================================
>>SUSTRAN-DISCUSS is a forum devoted to discussion of people-centred,
>equitable and sustainable transport with a focus on developing
>countries
>(the 'Global South'). Because of the history of the list, the main
>focus is
>on urban transport policy in Asia.
>
>
>
>================================================================
>SUSTRAN-DISCUSS is a forum devoted to discussion of people-centred,
>equitable and sustainable transport with a focus on developing
>countries
>(the 'Global South'). Because of the history of the list, the main
>focus is
>on urban transport policy in Asia.
>
>
>================================================================
>SUSTRAN-DISCUSS is a forum devoted to discussion of people-centred,
>equitable and sustainable transport with a focus on developing
>countries
>(the 'Global South'). Because of the history of the list, the main
>focus is
>on urban transport policy in Asia.
>
>Send instant messages to your online friends
>http://au.messenger.yahoo.com
>
>
>================================================================
>SUSTRAN-DISCUSS is a forum devoted to discussion of people-centred,
>equitable and sustainable transport with a focus on developing countries
>(the 'Global South'). Because of the history of the list, the main focus
>is on urban transport policy in Asia.
>
>
>================================================================
>SUSTRAN-DISCUSS is a forum devoted to discussion of people-centred,
>equitable and sustainable transport with a focus on developing countries
>(the 'Global South'). Because of the history of the list, the main focus
>is on urban transport policy in Asia.
>
>
>
>================================================================
>SUSTRAN-DISCUSS is a forum devoted to discussion of people-centred, equitable and sustainable transport with a focus on developing countries (the 'Global South'). Because of the history of the list, the main focus is on urban transport policy in Asia.
================================================================
SUSTRAN-DISCUSS is a forum devoted to discussion of people-centred, equitable and sustainable transport with a focus on developing countries (the 'Global South'). Because of the history of the list, the main focus is on urban transport policy in Asia.
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