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Re: Plug In America Wants Automakers to Retool for the Future
by Joseph Ashwood
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Just thought I'd weigh in. So I'm replying to pretty much everyone at once.
I'm sure everyone will notice that I am strongly opinionated on this.
> Do you think we should bail out the big three and save a boat-load of
jobs?
Bailing out the big three would be meaningless. They need a major
restructuring, the kind that only comes from bankruptcy. The saving of jobs
is a myth, it would only marginally delay the loss of the jobs. The US auto
makers lost because their methods simply cannot compete with the foreign
makers.
> Using the money to retool them
Bad idea. They don't need retooling, they need new business practices, it is
the business processes that lost, not the tools.
> Force them to convert to all hybrid or electric
So much for capitalism. Let the winners win and this crop of losers, let
them lose. Let the market decide, the market has decided that the big US
auto makers need to be eliminated.
> The bankruptcy of the auto makers will eliminate the jobs
In the short term yes, but long term no. The new Getrag facility makes a
perfect example, the one that Getrag has sued Chrysler over (Chrysler
countersued). If Chrysler backs out of the contract to buy the
transmissions, it will mean an immediate reduction in need for the facility,
but the investment in the facility has been made. This means that it is
important to make use of it. I estimate that hiring a 30% workforce would be
good for that facility, this would be a short term loss of 70% of the jobs,
but keep reading. This opens Getrag's ability to do what they do best, build
the fastest transmissions possible. The vehicles that Chrysler was going to
sell will still be sold, and the same ones that would have required a Getrag
transmission before are likely to have a Getrag transmission after, whether
it is OEM or aftermarket. As such over the next 5 to 10 years the Getrag
facility will reach the same 100% capacity. This applies across all the
suppliers that should survive, as such a bankruptcy of Chrysler/GM/Ford/etc
would cause only a temporary hiccup. Anyone saying anything else needs to
study economics again.
> Merge GM with Tesla
Here is where I started laughing. Take a company using century old
technology to make a second rate vehicle that has a demonstrated inability
to deliver and is looking like they will soon be bankrupt, and merge it with
GM. For those of you that are undoubtedly upset by this, look at the facts.
Tesla has delivered only a tiny fraction of the vehicles promised. Tesla
vehicles continually underperform the promises, whether it is range about
half the promised, or the number of gears, or the acceleration, or the top
speed, or even the promised price (which has increased by almost 50% since
initial estimates), to the claim that they engineered it themself (it is
almost all Lotus work). This has been so dramatic that there have already
been suits filed. As for the ability to run the company, have a look at
Whitestar, or the fact that Tesla has already gone through more than one set
of lay-offs, one of them even included closing an entire design studio (I
have no idea why they even had one, Lotus does their engineering and they
hire external industrial designers). The most valuable thing Tesla Motors
has is the name Tesla, and Nikola would roll over in his grave if he knew
that his name was being used for this.
> Give the small startups a billion each
This is a worse idea. Most companies wouldn't know how to work with one
million, giving them 1000 times that would just results in further waste. 24
of the 25 would burn through the cash with nothing to show, the 25th would
have it all embezzled.
The best idea is to allow the market to handle the market. Too big to fail
is a myth. Letting them fail is not only the best idea for the market, it is
the best idea for the technology, it is the best idea for the current
employees, it is the fastest way to reach viable market for EVs, it is the
fastest way to reach the recovery phase. Anything we do to the contrary will
just make things worse.
Joe
_______________________________________________
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Usage guidelines: http://evdl.org/help/index.html#conv
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I'm sure everyone will notice that I am strongly opinionated on this.
> Do you think we should bail out the big three and save a boat-load of
jobs?
Bailing out the big three would be meaningless. They need a major
restructuring, the kind that only comes from bankruptcy. The saving of jobs
is a myth, it would only marginally delay the loss of the jobs. The US auto
makers lost because their methods simply cannot compete with the foreign
makers.
> Using the money to retool them
Bad idea. They don't need retooling, they need new business practices, it is
the business processes that lost, not the tools.
> Force them to convert to all hybrid or electric
So much for capitalism. Let the winners win and this crop of losers, let
them lose. Let the market decide, the market has decided that the big US
auto makers need to be eliminated.
> The bankruptcy of the auto makers will eliminate the jobs
In the short term yes, but long term no. The new Getrag facility makes a
perfect example, the one that Getrag has sued Chrysler over (Chrysler
countersued). If Chrysler backs out of the contract to buy the
transmissions, it will mean an immediate reduction in need for the facility,
but the investment in the facility has been made. This means that it is
important to make use of it. I estimate that hiring a 30% workforce would be
good for that facility, this would be a short term loss of 70% of the jobs,
but keep reading. This opens Getrag's ability to do what they do best, build
the fastest transmissions possible. The vehicles that Chrysler was going to
sell will still be sold, and the same ones that would have required a Getrag
transmission before are likely to have a Getrag transmission after, whether
it is OEM or aftermarket. As such over the next 5 to 10 years the Getrag
facility will reach the same 100% capacity. This applies across all the
suppliers that should survive, as such a bankruptcy of Chrysler/GM/Ford/etc
would cause only a temporary hiccup. Anyone saying anything else needs to
study economics again.
> Merge GM with Tesla
Here is where I started laughing. Take a company using century old
technology to make a second rate vehicle that has a demonstrated inability
to deliver and is looking like they will soon be bankrupt, and merge it with
GM. For those of you that are undoubtedly upset by this, look at the facts.
Tesla has delivered only a tiny fraction of the vehicles promised. Tesla
vehicles continually underperform the promises, whether it is range about
half the promised, or the number of gears, or the acceleration, or the top
speed, or even the promised price (which has increased by almost 50% since
initial estimates), to the claim that they engineered it themself (it is
almost all Lotus work). This has been so dramatic that there have already
been suits filed. As for the ability to run the company, have a look at
Whitestar, or the fact that Tesla has already gone through more than one set
of lay-offs, one of them even included closing an entire design studio (I
have no idea why they even had one, Lotus does their engineering and they
hire external industrial designers). The most valuable thing Tesla Motors
has is the name Tesla, and Nikola would roll over in his grave if he knew
that his name was being used for this.
> Give the small startups a billion each
This is a worse idea. Most companies wouldn't know how to work with one
million, giving them 1000 times that would just results in further waste. 24
of the 25 would burn through the cash with nothing to show, the 25th would
have it all embezzled.
The best idea is to allow the market to handle the market. Too big to fail
is a myth. Letting them fail is not only the best idea for the market, it is
the best idea for the technology, it is the best idea for the current
employees, it is the fastest way to reach viable market for EVs, it is the
fastest way to reach the recovery phase. Anything we do to the contrary will
just make things worse.
Joe
_______________________________________________
General EVDL support: http://evdl.org/help/
Usage guidelines: http://evdl.org/help/index.html#conv
Archives: http://evdl.org/archive/
Subscription options: http://lists.sjsu.edu/mailman/listinfo/ev
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